Five reasons for a military invasion of Ukraine prepared by Russia

In Ukraine and Western countries, they are increasingly talking about invasion of the Russian armywhich could happen early next year. The Segodnya website has found out what reasons might induce the Kremlin to unleash a war with Ukraine and what reason Moscow needs to attack.

What Ukrainian intelligence officers say

An attack by Russian troops can occur in end of January – early February. This was stated by Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov in an interview with Military Times.

According to him, there are more than 90 thousand Russian servicemen near the Ukrainian border. Budanov also provided the publication with a scheme of the proposed offensive.

What they warn about in the West

The Bloomberg publication, citing data from American intelligence officers, informs that Russia is considering a scenario of a rapid large-scale offensive operation against Ukraine in several directions.

“US intelligence warned European allies that there is little time left to prevent Russia from starting hostilities in Ukraine.”, – пишет The New York Times.

Russia announced a “provocation”

Press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov called these statements “whipping up hysteria” and an attempt at provocation. Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN also denied reports that Russia was preparing an attack on Ukraine.

“No, we do not plan and never did”– Polyansky told reporters.

At the same time, the diplomat nevertheless noted that the peaceful position of the Kremlin will remain until Russia “is not subject to provocations from Ukraine or someone else.” In this case, entering the territory of a neighboring state will become “a matter of protecting the sovereignty of the Russian Federation.”

“Protection of the sovereignty of the Russian Federation”

Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia Maria Zakharova stated that the entry of the USS Mount Whitney (LCC 20) and USS Porter into the Black Sea indicates an attempt by America to threaten Russia with war. According to her, the US Navy exercises are just a cover. In fact, Washington allegedly wants to develop a plan of military operations on the territory of Ukraine.

In the opinion military expert Oleg Zhdanov, Polyansky’s statement about “protecting the sovereignty of the Russian Federation” concerns precisely the issue of the presence of US warships in the Black Sea.

“Russia considers Crimea its territory and makes it clear that an encroachment on the peninsula will be an encroachment on the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation,” Zhdanov says.

Lack of water in Crimea

Member of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, Chairman of the Crimean Tatar Resource Center Eskender Bariev believes that Russia could invade Ukraine due to the lack of water in the occupied Crimea.

“Drinking water on the peninsula could be enough to meet the needs of the local population. However, the Crimean authorities controlled by Russia prefer to spend it on industrial and military needs, which leads to a serious crisis.”, – said Bariev in an interview with the publication “Crimea. Realities”.

According to him, since the beginning of the annexation, the Russian Federation tried to get Ukraine to resume water supply to the peninsula through the North Crimean Canal.

“In 2014, the Russian military tried to seize a land corridor to Crimea, including access to the Kakhovka reservoir. Then they managed to stop their advance at the level of Mariupol.”– says Bariev, noting that Moscow may try again.

Foreign military bases in Ukraine

Former Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Igor Romanenko believes that the deployment of NATO and EU military bases on the territory of Ukraine can also become a pretext for the manifestation of Russian aggression.

“If the bases are officially located in Ukraine, this could cause an invasion,” Romanenko says to Segodnya.

Artificial pretext for starting a war

At the same time, the expert is sure that Russia can create an artificial pretext for arguing the invasion of Ukraine.

“There is such a legal term from the times of Roman law, Casus belli – a formal reason for declaring war. Russia can find a number of reasons for the invasion. For example, in 1939, after the shelling of Soviet border guards by Finnish soldiers, the USSR began a war with Finland. As it turned out later, the shelling was carried out by the Russians themselves. . In the same way, Russia unleashed the war in Georgia in 2008, “says Romanenko.

The retired lieutenant general does not rule out that Russia may use this scenario in the Donbas.

“They can arrange a provocation, allegedly Ukraine used weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. Accuse of violating the agreements and start a war,” says Romanenko.

“Protection” of Russian citizens

Also, according to the general, Moscow may launch an invasion in order to “protect the citizens of Russia.”

“Mass distribution of Russian passports in ORDLO. The so-called L / DPR leadership has asked Russia to call on Russian citizens to undergo military service on a contract basis in the territory not controlled by Ukraine. This gives Russia a reason to declare the need to protect its citizens located in the Donbass, “explains Romanenko.

Does Russia need a reason to start a war

According to Oleg Zhdanov, Russia does not need any official reasons to invade Ukraine.

“Russia brazenly invaded Crimea, Transnistria, Syria and did not report to anyone. The Kremlin does not consider it necessary to explain the reasons to the world community. The only important reason for Moscow is“ saving the Russian world. ”As Putin said:“ The border of Russia does not end anywhere. Russia is where there are Russians. “This phrase is the main explanation for the possible invasion of the Russian army into the territory of any country, including Ukraine,” Zhdanov summed up.

Earlier, the site “Segodnya” found out whether we should wait for the invasion of the Russian army, will Ukraine be protected international partners and whether a new war will start.

We also reported that Moscow could attack Ukraine with warplanes. Will the Armed Forces of Ukraine be able to withstand air strikes – read in our article.