Meeting with Putin, a new decision on Donbass and the collapse of the “Servant of the People” – what to expect for Ukraine in December

Wednesday 1st December President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with annual message to the Verkhovna Rada. The head of state reported on the work done and spoke about his goals for the next two years. What other important events can happen in December before the holiday break?

Conflict in Donbass

In December, a breakthrough in the Donbass issue may occur. This is what “Today” says political scientist Vadim Karasev.

“During an appeal to the Rada, Zelensky said that he was ready for direct conversation with Putin and hinted that the West supports him. In turn, the Kremlin announced a meeting Putin and Biden… Probably, everything is moving towards an agreement on the de-escalation of the conflict, “the expert said.

Agrees with him political scientist Ruslan Bortnik.

“Progress is expected on the Donbass issue. We see an attempt to enter into a direct dialogue with Putin with the support of the West and Turkey. Perhaps, at the end of the month, a Christmas truce with further de-escalation will be announced in Donbass,” Bortnik tells us.

In the same time political scientist Svetlana Kushnir doubts that we should expect a change in the situation in the east of Ukraine.

“It is unlikely that the next meeting of the Normandy Four will take place before the end of the year, which will be able to influence the resolution of the conflict,” she explains.

Political scientist Alexey Golobutsky I am sure that Zelensky and Putin will not meet in December.

“Putin does not need a meeting. The Kremlin declares that the Russian Federation is not a party to the conflict, and therefore talk to her with Ukraine there is nothing, “the expert emphasizes.

Will Russia invade Ukraine

Political scientist Igor Petrenko notes that the tension at the border is unlikely to disappear before the end of the year.

“Much depends on Russia and the West. Moscow has put forward a demand for NATO that Ukraine should not become a member of the Alliance. It is unlikely that there will be a definite answer from NATO in December. It is also doubtful that Biden will be able to promise this to Putin during the meeting. Therefore, Russia, most likely, will will not withdraw troops from the border, but it will not attack Ukraine either, “he says.

Summit for Democracy and Eastern Partnership Summit

The Summit for Democracy will take place in virtual mode on December 9-10 in Washington, and the Eastern Partnership Summit will be held on December 15 in Brussels. Ukraine is invited to both events… However, according to Svetlana Kushnir, there will be no real and quick benefit for our country from these forums.

“They will discuss global problems, but one should not expect real action from the United States and Europe. The Ukrainian authorities will publish beautiful photographs of meetings with world politicians and tell about some agreements, nothing more,” the political scientist says.

Igor Petrenko added that the West will prepare for the celebration of Catholic Christmas, and the solution of important issues will be postponed until next year.

Conflict between the government and the opposition

According to Vadim Karasev, the confrontation in the Rada between the mono-majority and the opposition will be in a sluggish stage.

“The opposition should predict by the end of the year whether it makes sense to work on organizing early parliamentary elections. After all, if the people’s deputies continue to leave the Servant of the People, the mono-majority will lose their weight, and the president will have to negotiate with the opposition,” says Karasev.

Political analyst Petrenko does not exclude that conflicts may occur in the Rada not only because of a split in Servant of the People, but also because of the adoption of the budget for next year.

“December can be a very busy month in parliament,” says Petrenko.

Ruslan Bortnik notes that if the parliament completes its work in a calm regime, then the political crisis may unfold from the second half of January.

“At the same time, new conflicts between the authorities and the opposition and regular protests may begin,” says Bortnik.

Resignations and scandals

According to Bortnik, in December we may hear about new resignations in law enforcement agencies.

“The other day the president dismissed the head of the counterintelligence department of the SBU Alexander Rusnak… I think this will not be the last resignation before the end of the year. The special services are being reformatted after the scandal with the failure of the Wagnergate, says Bortnik.

Political analyst Golobutsky doubts that in December society will receive an answer to the question of who is behind the “coup d’etat” that Zelensky announced.

“The President made a loud statement about the preparation of a coup, but this case will remain without continuation. People are already accustomed to the fact that there is often nothing behind Zelensky’s statements,” he explains.

Svetlana Kushnir notes that Ukrainians are also awaiting the results of the investigation into the assassination attempt on Deputy Head of the Office of President Sergei Shefir.

“It is unlikely that we will find out before the end of the year,” Kushnir is sure.

Presidential media resource

Vadim Karasev notes that Zelensky’s team in December will actively prepare “its own media troops” to attack the opposition.

“There is a reformatting of the Rada and Dom TV channels, on which talk shows praising the authorities will appear. At the same time, there will be new attempts to restrict competing media,” says Karasev.

Drop in rating

According to political analysts, in December, the rating of the president and his parliamentary faction “Servant of the People” may decline even more.

“From the rostrum of the Rada, the president talks about the great achievements of the government, but ordinary Ukrainians do not feel the improvement in life. And in the Servant of the People itself, many no longer believe the president and begin to leave the ranks of the faction. the beginning of the collapse of Zelensky’s team, “Golobutsky summed up.

Earlier, the site “Today” reported that mono-majority rating fell… According to a KIIS poll conducted on November 26-29, if parliamentary elections were now taking place, the EU and Servant of the People parties would receive (respectively) 17% and 15% of the votes.