The situation in Donbass can develop according to several scenarios
There is an active dialogue between Russia and the United States on the Donbass issue. Photo: collage “Today”
In December President of the United States Joe Biden held talks and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Ukraine was one of the main topics. As a result of the conversation between the heads of state, there was no breakthrough in the settlement of the conflict in the east of our country. What will happen to Donbass next year and should Ukraine wait for a de-escalation of the conflict?
Three scenarios for Donbass
The situation in Donbass can develop according to several scenarios. This is what “Today” says political scientist Igor Petrenko… According to the expert, in 2022, there may be such developments in the conflict zone:
- Sluggish continuation of the existing situation: tension in the conflict zone, permanent shelling, lack of progress on the issue of a truce and exchange of prisoners.
- Reducing the escalation of the conflict, defrosting the Normandy format, possible joining the US negotiations, declaring a truce and ceasefire for any period of time, as well as progress on the exchange of prisoners and the opening of the checkpoint.
- Escalation of the conflict, an increase in the number of shelling, large-scale hostilities and a war with Russia.
“The second option seems to me the most probable. Now there is an active dialogue between Russia and the US. Europe is insisting on the Normandy meeting. Given these circumstances, it can be assumed that at the beginning of the year the situation will improve and the process will move off the ground,” says Segodnya. Petrenko.
Igor Petrenko: “At the beginning of 2022, the situation in Donbass may improve” / Photo: Facebook
Ukrainian authorities may miss Donbass
Military expert Oleg Starikov notes that the solution to the problem of Donbass primarily depends not on Russia and the West, but on Ukraine.
“If the Ukrainian authorities do nothing to return Donbass, then by the end of 2022 we can lose it forever,” the expert tells us.
Starikov draws attention to the fact that while Ukrainian and Western diplomats are trying to decide the fate of Donbass, the Russian migration service issues passports of the Russian Federation to Ukrainians living in ORDLO.
“This year, 600,000 passports were issued, next year 1.5 million Ukrainians will receive Russian citizenship. How are we going to return Donbass, populated by Russian citizens, to Ukraine?” – Starikov asks.
Oleg Starikov: “If the Ukrainian government does nothing to return Donbass, then by the end of 2022 we can lose it forever” / Photo: Facebook
Agrees with him military expert Igor Koziy.
“Today, the youth of Donbass are graduating from schools with the Russian education system. Due to the limited information, adolescents treat Ukraine as an aggressor. We are wasting time while the residents of Donbass are being tuned into rapprochement with Russia,” says Segodnya Koziy.
How to deal with the Minsk agreements
Koziy is confident that the conflict in Donbass will not be resolved in 2022.
“One of the main problems is the Minsk agreements, which are beneficial for Russia, but not for Ukraine. Until the issue with Minsk is resolved, we will be marking time,” he says.
Igor Koziy: “Until the issue with Minsk is resolved, we will be marking time” / Photo: Facebook
Political scientist Vadim Karasev I am sure that I will still have to return to the issue of the “Minsk Agreements”. Indeed, not only Russia but also the West is insisting on their implementation today.
“Moscow is escalating the conflict in order to force us to sign the Minsk agreements. At the same time, Russia, the United States, and Europe understand that this agreement, signed in 2015, has brought its participants to a dead end. Perhaps next year, the terms of the agreement will begin to be fulfilled if if changes are made to it that will suit everyone. It will be a way out of the impasse, “Karasev said to Segodnya.
Donbass conflict may be resolved by Biden’s deal with Putin
The political scientist also does not exclude that Putin and Biden may conclude a deal.
“Russia can promise to leave Donbass in exchange for a guarantee non-accession of Ukraine to NATO. But in case of refusal of such conditions, Putin can unleash a war, since further bluffing and not fulfilling his threat – for the President of Russia means – “losing face.” The next year may become a turning point in the history of Donbass, Ukraine and the world, “summed up Karasev.
Vadim Karasev: “Next year may become a turning point in the history of Donbass, Ukraine and the world” / Photo: Facebook
Earlier, the site “Today” found out will donate Biden with Ukraine to calm Putin down.
We also informed that Russian President Vladimir Putin, during video talks with US President Joseph Biden, made it clear that he is seeking Ukraine’s non-membership in Western alliances. At the same time, Washington noted that Ukraine is a partner of the United States. Biden told Putin that if the situation in Ukraine escalated, the US would strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.
In addition, we wrote that on December 17, Russia handed over to the United States a draft treaty on the provision of guarantees for the non-expansion of NATO to the East. It talks about not accepting the countries of the former Soviet Union into the Alliance – primarily Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia
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Source From: Segodnya
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