“The United States represents a united Western front.” What can Ukraine expect from the meeting between Blinken and Lavrov in Geneva

On Friday, January 21, at 12:00, a meeting was held in GenevaUS Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The main topic of the talks was a draft treaty presented by Russia on security guarantees and an agreement on measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation and NATO. The Segodnya website found out how the negotiations will go and what Ukraine should expect from them.

An attempt to reduce tension

On the eve of the meeting, the US Secretary of State said that the talks with Lavrov in Geneva were “a diplomatic attempt to reduce tensions around an unprovoked Russian military buildup near Ukraine’s borders.” At the same time, Blinken warned that if Russia attacked Ukraine, further negotiations with the West on security issues would be impossible.

“The opportunity to work with the United States and our allies and partners in Europe to determine the future and our common security will be nullified in the event of Russian aggression against Ukraine”, – the head of the State Department told reporters in Berlin, where he arrived on January 20 for a meeting with the foreign ministers of Germany and France to discuss the Ukrainian issue.

Anthony Blinken: “Negotiations with Lavrov are a “diplomatic attempt to reduce tensions.” Photo: ua.news

Blinken also expressed hope that the talks would lead to the return of the Russian army from the borders of Ukraine to the places of permanent deployment.

“The world does not need a new conflict in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic and the threat of climate change. We can improve our mutual understanding and this will lead us out of the crisis in the coming weeks”, – he said, adding that otherwise the aggression against Ukraine will lead to what Moscow “complains” about – to the strengthening of NATO.

The politician also addressed the world community.

“Governments and citizens around the world should care about what is happening in Ukraine. This is not a distant regional conflict or another example of Russian bullying. The principles at stake have made the world a safer and more stable place for decades.”, Blinken wrote on his Twitter page.

Europe supported the USA

Political scientist Petr Burkovsky notes that on January 19, during a press conference on the results of the first year of governing the country, the US president said that in the event of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West would respond with tough economic sanctions.

“Biden made it clear that an agreement had been reached with Europe on this issue and Germany, France and the United Kingdom would support the imposition of sanctions against Russia. Blinken’s statement can be considered in the context of Biden’s words. Russia, having taken an aggressive step, will turn against itself the most powerful countries of the G7” And at the talks in Geneva, the United States will be the representative of the united Western front,” Burkovsky says to Segodnya.

Anthony Blinken spoke about the negotiations in Berlin. Collage “Today”

According to the expert, in the event of a war between Russia and Ukraine, the West will not only impose sanctions against Moscow, but will also increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine.

“In addition, the United States will strengthen its presence in the Baltic countries, Poland and Romania in order to provide security to those countries that are not able to defend themselves. By the way, the United States has already held talks with Finland about the country’s possible entry into NATO. join the Alliance, but Putin, by invading Ukraine, will push them to do so,” says Burkovsky.

According to him, such a scenario is possible, and this is evidenced by Blinken’s thesis that aggression against Ukraine will lead to the strengthening of NATO.

What to expect from the meeting in Geneva

According to Burkovsky, one should not expect much progress from the talks between Blinken and Lavrov in Geneva. They will not put an end to the solution of the Ukrainian issue.

“Lavrov is a boy on parcels, a speaker relaying Putin’s voice. Russian diplomats, including the Foreign Minister, are not authorized to make such important political decisions. Lavrov has clear instructions on what to say, but no freedom of action. Only inscribed red Presidential lines and prepared texts. But Biden entrusted Blinken to take the initiative and personally resolve issues,” the political scientist tells us.

Piotr Burkovsky: “The United States represents a united Western front”

The US Secretary of State also spoke about the low probability of successful negotiations.

“We are determined to solve problems with Russia peacefully, but we do not expect great results from negotiations”Blinken told reporters.

A similar comment was given to media representatives by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

“We do not expect breakthroughs from the meeting with Blinken, but we are waiting for answers”, – he said.

Sergey Lavrov: “We do not expect breakthroughs from the meeting with Blinken, but we are waiting for answers” / Photo: TASS

Political scientist Burkovsky is confident that the talks in Geneva will be a technical meeting.

“The United States wants to” probe “Russia. To understand whether the Kremlin is aware of the seriousness of the situation. Is Moscow ready to confront and fall under sanctions, or is it still inclined to make concessions and de-escalate the conflict? I do not exclude that these negotiations will become preparations for a new Biden meeting and Putin, where the heads of state will already decide the issue on the merits,” says Burkovsky.

Will there be a war

Political scientist Vladimir Volya believes that Russia understands what economic and political consequences await it in the event of a military invasion of Ukraine, therefore, most likely, the Kremlin will make concessions, but still may receive some bonuses.

“The risk of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is minimal. Russia does not want to quarrel with the United States, Europe, Turkey, so an invasion is unlikely to happen, and Ukraine can even expect some kind of de-escalation of the conflict and a decrease in tension on the border,” says Volya.

In his opinion, the US has already made a number of concessions.

“For example, Biden made it clear that he is ready for negotiations on the non-deployment of strike weapons on the territory of Ukraine, and its entry into NATO will not happen in the near future. America can also agree with the clauses of the Russian security treaty, which refers to the transparency of military exercises. Russia will present this as an achievement and success of his diplomacy,” Volya summed up.

Vladimir Volya: “The risk of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine is minimal” / Photo: Facebook

Three meetings have already taken place on the subject of security guarantees: talks between interdepartmental delegations of the Russian Federation and the United States in Geneva on January 10, discussions within NATO in Brussels on January 12, and discussions in the OSCE in Vienna on January 13.

As the website “Segodnya” reported, Anthony Blinken arrived in Kiev on an official visit on January 19. He said that US President Joe Biden asked him to go to Ukraine.

During the visit, Blinken met with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. We discussed issues of Ukraine’s security in the face of the threat of Russian aggression.

The US Secretary of State noted that he was pleased with the visit to Ukraine. According to him, the US will continue to strengthen its relationship with Ukraine to deter Russian aggression. After the meetings in Kiev, Blinken went to Berlin for negotiations.