“A trump card in the sleeve.” Why in Russia they started talking about the recognition of the “LDNR” and whether Putin needs a sovereign Donbass

Deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation decided to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a request to recognize the so-called “LNR” and “DNR” as sovereign states. At the same time, the opinions of Russian politicians are divided: some support this initiative, demanding “to protect the Russians in the Donbas from NATO occupation”, others are categorically against, fearing negative consequences and harsh sanctions from the West. The Segodnya website found out why discussions about the recognition of the “republics” arose during the negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States, what people think about this in Ukraine and the “DPR”, and whether Putin will take such a step.

Draft appeal

On January 19, deputies from the Communist Party, headed by Gennady Zyuganov submitted a draft appeal to President Vladimir Putin with a request to recognize the so-called Donetsk and Lugansk “people’s republics” as sovereign states.

“The recognition of the” LDNR “is justified and morally justified, since in recent years democratic state bodies with all the attributes of legitimate power have been built in the Donbass. For 8 years, residents of Donbass have not received pensions and social assistance in the conditions of an economic blockade. Such recognition will create grounds for providing guarantees the security of the residents of Donbass from external threats and the implementation of the policy of genocide”, – stated in the appeal of the Communist Party.

The Communists also proposed that the President of the Russian Federation hold talks with the leaders of the “LPR” to create a “legal basis for interstate relations”, which will regulate, among other things, the provision of military assistance.

“Protect Russians from NATO Occupation”

As stated Head of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Vyacheslav Volodin, the faction “A Just Russia – For Truth” agreed to support the communist project.

“I think the deputies from United Russia, who have repeatedly spoken out on this topic, are also concerned about the issue of protecting the lives of Russian citizens living on the territory of the DNR and LNR. In this regard, it would be right to consider the issue at the Council of the State Duma”, – Volodin wrote in his Telegram channel.

The Chairman of the State Duma also added that President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky ignores the implementation of the Minsk agreements, and in the meantime, NATO wants to occupy Ukraine.

“Both one and the other can turn into a tragedy. We must not allow this. It is quite obvious: solutions to ensure the security of our citizens in the “DNR” and “LNR” must be sought”, he emphasized.

“Ukraine should become part of the Russian Federation”

First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Viktor Vodolatsky noted that the proposal of the Communist Party could lead to negative consequences for Russia. I agree with him and head of the Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky.

“Suppose we do it, and what’s next? Peace will be established there right away? No. The threat to the Russians will disappear? No. Who, except us, recognizes this decision? Nobody. We will not achieve anything in terms of Russia’s strategic security, decision of the Russians in Ukraine”Zhirinovsky said.

In his opinion, the adoption of the appeal of the Communist Party will provoke new Western sanctions. Therefore, more drastic action needs to be taken.

“The position of the Liberal Democratic Party is that all of Ukraine should again become part of Russia”– Zhirinovsky told reporters.

What was said in Ukraine

Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov believes that Russia’s recognition of the “LDNR” will be a demonstration of its rejection of the Minsk agreements. He stated this to journalists in the Verkhovna Rada on Tuesday, January 25, stressing that the initiative of the State Duma deputies is a provocation designed to make Ukrainians nervous.

“We will not be nervous about this. Calls to recognize the illegal terrorist groups that are located on the territory of the temporarily occupied Lugansk and Donetsk regions have been heard for more than a day. This is an old song, by the way, just as if there were no Russians there. Let me remind you: 2,000 regular officers of the Russian armed forces are present on a permanent basis in ORDLO, who just carry out command and control of the first and second army corps, formed from mercenaries and other scum.”Reznikov said.

Head of the Servant of the People faction David Arakhamia stated that the Verkhovna Rada would condemn such a decision of the State Duma of Russia, if it was adopted. But the Rada will not be able to influence the decision of the State Duma, because “these are not related structures.”

“As far as I remember, the State Duma tried several times to put this issue to a vote and vote, but this never happened”, – the people’s deputy told reporters.

What they say in the “DNR”

The so-called ex-minister of defense of the “DPR” Igor Strelkov on the air of the Roy TV Internet channel, he said that the Kremlin first wants to solve the tactical problem of recognizing the LDNR, and then the strategic one – drawing all of Ukraine into its orbit.

“A hundred thousand Russian troops concentrated near the Ukrainian border are not enough to invade Ukraine, but it will be enough to enter the “DPR” and “LPR” to protect them in the event of official recognition by Russia. Apparently, the Kremlin is not going to surrender the Donbass, because it understands that the next Crimea”Strelkov said.

Leverage on Ukraine

Political scientist Ruslan Bortnik calls discussions about recognizing “LDNR” as a lever of pressure and blackmail on Ukraine.

“If the State Duma votes for an appeal to the president, it will not give anything yet. After all, this is not even a bill. In 2014, the State Duma gave the Russian president permission to send troops to Ukraine, but Putin did not use it. Also, this initiative may remain unrealized” , – says “Today” Bortnik.

In his opinion, raising the topic of recognizing “LDNR” in the public arena is nothing more than a threat to Ukraine in the context of the dialogue on the Minsk agreements.

“A kind of hint that if Ukraine does not comply with Minsk or escalates, then Russia will be able to recognize the LDNR,” says Bortnik.

At the same time, the political scientist notes that such a decision will have serious consequences.

“This will mean Russia’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements, followed by a new round of escalation and the threat of war with Ukraine for the territories of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions controlled by it, which the LDNR wants to include in its composition,” says Bortnik.

Blackmail the West

Political scientist Vladimir Volya adds that by recognizing “LDNR”, Russia can not only put pressure on Ukraine, but also blackmail the West.

The expert notes that the Communist Party’s initiative arose against the backdrop of Russia’s negotiations with the United States and NATO on security guarantees in Eastern Europe. In his opinion, the recognition of the “LDNR” may be a “plan B” for the Kremlin in case the US refuses to sign the treaty presented by Russia.

“This is a trump card hidden in the sleeve of the Kremlin. Moscow is in no hurry to put this card on the table in anticipation of Washington’s response to the draft treaty submitted by Russia on security guarantees between Russia and NATO. If the United States does not make a number of concessions, Russia may use the recognition of the LDNR in as a new threat to the destabilization of the Donbass region,” says Volya.

Will Russia accept “LDNR” recognition?

Recognition of “LDNR”, according to political scientists, today is not beneficial for Russia. For Moscow, there are no political or economic advantages in such a decision. If the so-called republics become sovereign, they will require even more financial injections for development and will still remain a hot spot in the conflict with Ukraine and the West.

“It is not beneficial for Russia to recognize the LDNR, but it is beneficial for it to put pressure on Ukraine and the West, threatening such a possibility,” Bortnik summed up.

Russian occupation of Donbass

Earlier, the Segodnya website informed that on Friday, January 21, a meeting was held in Geneva US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation Sergey Lavrov.

The main topic of the talks was the draft treaty presented by Russia on security guarantees and agreements on measures to ensure the security of the Russian Federation and NATO, as well as the topic of Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine.