The European Commission has finally presented the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, now a sort of legislative Godot. And from the reactions, we understand why. The measures in fact foresee new oligarchs on the black list, including Patriarch Kirill, the expulsion from SWIFT of Sberbank (the main Russian bank), a blow to the regime’s propaganda but, above all, the expected embargo on oil. Gradual and with exceptions to Hungary and Slovakia, too dependent on Putin’s crude oil to do without it suddenly. However, concessions were not enough in Budapest: “As it stands, we will not support the proposal,” thundered the spokesman for Orban’s government, effectively threatening the veto. But, as often happens in Europe, the picture is more complex.
Meanwhile, a procedural note. The Commission forwarded the sanctions package to the countries only on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday and this morning, at 8.30, President Ursula von der Leyen was already in the hemicycle of the Strasbourg Eurochamber to illustrate its contents. “The future of Europe is also written in Ukraine”, she declared in her speech. So enough for Russian crude “within six months” and refined products “by the end of the year”. A sweet farewell to allow “our partners to ensure alternative supply routes and to minimize the impact on global markets”. Then he put his hands on. “It won’t be easy: some Member States are heavily dependent on Russian oil, but we just have to do it.” No mention of the exceptions. That part was learned when the 27 began to analyze the text, meeting at Coreper, the body of permanent representatives to the EU.
Von der Leyen’s “it won’t be easy”, for some observers, hides a kind of ‘forcing’ of the Commission, tired of endless negotiations. That it is the countries, was the reasoning, that assume their responsibilities – with the relative uproar for those who threaten the veto. What then promptly happened. “The EU states that continue to oppose the oil embargo will be complicit in the crimes committed by Russia on Ukrainian territory”, attacked Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba in a video message.
On the other hand, however, there are also the European procedures to be respected, however abstruse, with countries jealous of their prerogatives, reluctant to act as the Commission’s paper passer. Hence the need to have a few days to analyze the document, evaluate it, decline it in its various specificities. No black smoke, therefore, but simple “logic of things”. “I see no insurmountable impediments, the package will be approved by the end of the week”, confides an EU source.
Of course, now it’s up to politics and politics is the art of possibility. Budapest is loud, publicly, but in the muffled rooms of the Coreper it seems that the tones were different.
The objective of Hungary and Slovakia could be to obtain further “compensation” in addition to the derogation “until 2023” which will allow the natural extinction of the contracts (but the prohibition of stipulating new ones remains). And others at this point (the names of the Czech Republic and Bulgaria are mentioned) are asking for ad hoc treatments. Greece, on the strength of its powerful fleet, disputes the penalization of its oil tankers, given that Russia would use other ships, with little effect on the embargo but a lot on Greek business. “We are in the cow market phase”, ventures another source. However, nothing that (to date) can really sink the operation.
The confirmation would also come from the English side. The UK has announced that Russia and its companies are immediately banned from the UK City’s network of financial services, consultancy and public relations.
It is difficult to think that London and Brussels have not coordinated, thus obtaining the maximum media impact. Because threatening the veto is one thing, really using it is another.
Source: Ansa
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