Does the traffic light fail in the end due to empty registers?

So far it has been a bit like the honeymoon with the Greens and FDP. As if to demonstrate that they are setting the pace in the search for government, the Greens bosses Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, FDP boss Christian Lindner and FDP general secretary Volker Wissing come together for an in-depth exploratory phase with the SPD at the Berlin exhibition center.

This week will show how resilient a traffic light coalition would be. The topic is still kept small in public, but whether the first traffic light coalition in the federal government will come, will mainly be decided on the tax and financial issues. The SPD squad around Olaf Scholz was the first to come to the exploratory round before the Greens and FDP – because there is a lot to be prepared to solve the biggest sticking points.

This Monday there will be more than ten hours of discussion, and it will also be about the dear money.

One thing is clear: the corona pandemic has increased national debt enormously. That makes it so difficult to finance the goals of more social security, secure pensions, and billions in investments in climate protection, industry, digitization, infrastructure and the construction of apartments. A Jamaica coalition would have this problem too, so creative or unconventional solutions are needed here.

The red lines of the FDP

Before the explorations on Monday (9 a.m. to 7 p.m.), Tuesday (9 a.m. to 1 p.m.) and Friday (possibly 9 a.m. to 4 p.m.), FDP General Secretary Wissing made it clear once again that two points are non-negotiable for the Liberals: tax increases and the easing of the debt brake.

But there could be leeway on both points. The SPD and the Greens want to relieve middle and lower incomes for the purpose of more justice and burden top earners (from 100,000 euros income for singles) a little more. If this were designed in such a way that the state no longer earns the sum, the bottom line might not be any tax increases – but the FDP should see it differently.

The debt brake will be suspended again in 2022

With the debt brake it is like this: The previous federal government has decided on a pro forma budget for 2022, where the debt brake will be suspended again due to the special situation in the wake of the corona pandemic.

It is planned to take out new loans amounting to 99.7 billion euros. The SPD, Greens and FDP are likely to stick to the same course, but could significantly increase new borrowing again in order to push a lot of investment spending into the first year – then the new borrowing could tear the 100 billion euro limit.

But the FDP would then have to be assured to return to the debt brake – which still allows a small amount of new debt – from 2023. Or, as suggested by Chancellor Helge Braun at the beginning of the year, the instrument should be loosened temporarily, i.e. allowing significantly greater debt leeway up to a certain date, but maintaining the debt brake as an instrument.

The federal government could curb subsidies and sell silverware

Greens boss Robert Habeck makes it clear that the Greens want a state investment offensive, especially in climate protection, of 50 billion euros per year. FDP boss Christian Lindner wants to use state subsidies to finance additional spending or sell holdings, such as Telekom shares. The situation is difficult, so someone who was once the architect of the former “black zero” should soon be asked: Olaf Scholz’s State Secretary for Households Werner Gatzer.

Habeck: Finances a “huge problem”

Habeck emphasized on Sunday evening how important it is for the negotiations with the FDP to be successful. “Failure is actually not an option,” he said on the ZDF program “Berlin direkt”. If a grand coalition of the SPD and the Union were to emerge again, Germany would “go nuts”. “We have to pull ourselves together a bit,” said Habeck. The finances are of course a “huge problem”.

The aim is to draw an interim balance at the end of the week. Then, above all, the FDP and the Greens want to decide whether to enter into coalition negotiations with the SPD – or whether there may have to be another exploratory round. The Greens and FDP have explicitly kept the possibility of a Jamaica coalition with the Union open. The Green Youth gave such an alliance a clear rejection at the weekend. (with dpa)