“The political elections will be decided in the single-member constituencies of the Rosatellum: this is what emerges from the latest mapping developed by YouTrend in partnership with Cattaneo Zanetto & Cobased on the electoral law in force and on the latest Quorum / YouTrend poll for Sky TG24. “So in a statement.
“If the national center-right is ahead, there are still many territories where the favored coalition is uncertain or in the balance, sometimes for very few votes. Since the Rosatellum provides that in the constituencies the candidates can be supported by coalitions, the latter are decisive. For this reason they were considered three scenarios: in scenario A the PD and the left forces are allied with the centrists but not with the 5 stars, in B they are not allied with the centrists nor with the 5 stars and in C they are allied with the 5 stars but not with the centrists “.
“To date, up to 67 (43 in the Chamber and 24 in the Senate in scenario C) are single-member constituencies that can be contested by coalitions in the field based on alliances with which we will go to the polls: areas of the country with very different histories and social characteristics, united by the extreme uncertainty of the electoral outcome.
They range from the Sesto San Giovanni college, with the former Stalingrad of Italy in the Milanese suburbs that would be contestable if the Democratic Party enlarged its coalition to the left and centrists, up to the Ragusa college, who would see a head-to-head if the center-right were opposed by a yellow-red alliance with the center-left and the Allied 5-Star Movement.
Perhaps the most striking example is the college of Giugliano in Campania, which in the case of three poles – with the pentastellati running alone – would be within the reach of all three coalitions: it is the most contestable college in Italy, in this scenario. And then there are single-member colleges that are contestable in all three hypothesized alliance schemes: Forlì, Ancona and Pisa, but also the urban colleges of Rome-Fiumicino and North Turin they would be on the line whatever the alliances between the lists are “.
“In short, the territories in the balance change according to the scenario – continues Youtrend – but they are still decisive, so much so that they can shift the electoral outcome from a center-right super-majority to an ungovernable Parliament without any coalition obtaining a majority. The result of next September 25 will depend a lot on who wins the contestable single-member constituencies “.
Methodology: the mapping of single-member districts produced by YouTrend in partnership with Cattaneo Zanetto & Co was developed starting from the results of the latest Quorum / YouTrend survey for Sky TG24, carried out between 22 and 23 July 2022 with 977 interviews conducted with methodology CAWI on a representative sample of the Italian adult population.
Source: Ansa
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