THE SWG SURVEY
The challenge between Fdi and Pd continues in the electoral race. According to a Swg survey made yesterday 23.8 of the participants in the vote said they were ready to choose Brothers of Italy followed by 23.3 of voters for the Democratic Party. For both, there was a decline of 0.4 percent compared to a survey of 1 August.
The League instead at 12.5% with an increase of 0.5. M5s follow at 10.4 (+0.4); Forza Italia 8% (+0.5). While Action and + Europe data still together reached 6.5% with a decline of 0.3.
Dates of execution: August 3-8, 2022. Survey method: CATI-CAMI-CAWI survey on a national representative sample of 1200 adults. Data from January 2021 to July 2022 refer to monthly averages. METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: Execution dates: 3-8 August 2022. Survey method: CATI-CAMI-CAWI survey on a national representative sample of 1200 adults. Data from January 2021 to July 2022 refer to monthly averages.
Giorgia Meloni always leads the ranking of the leaders’ satisfaction with 32% of the preferences. This is the result of an SGW survey that provides the ranking of party leaders. The leader of FdI is followed by Giuseppe Conte (25%). There is a head to head between Enrico Letta and Matteo Salvini both at 23%. In the rear Carlo Calenda (20%) and Silvio Berlusconi (19%). The center-right electorate, according to the poll, appears to be the most motivated to go and vote. Abstention is high outside the two main poles. In fact, numbers in hand, only 28% of right and center-right voters will not go to vote while 54% of the Center electorate and 31% of the left and center-left announce their abstention. Finally, 67% of those who will not go to the polls are among the politically “not placed”. METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: values expressed in%. Execution dates: 3-5 August 2022. Survey method: CATI-CAMI-CAWI survey on a national representative sample of 800 adults.
Among the few certainties on the outcome of the vote on September 25th there is abstention. Just over half of those entitled to vote declare themselves ready to vote. This is what emerges from a Swg survey. In fact, currently only 58% of voters are firmly intent on going to the polls. However, among 42% of the abstentions, there are those who have not yet made the final decision (17%), only 9% are sure not to go, while another 9% will decide just before the elections. The reason for dissaffection is for 30% of the interviewees the unconvincing political offer and disillusionment. Convinced that voting is useless is 28% of the survey participants, while 21% say they are not interested in politics. 16% instead boycotted the polls “in protest”, followed by 13% “disgusted by politics”. Only 6% say “unable to vote on September 25”. METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: values expressed in%. Execution dates: 3-5 August 2022. Survey method: CATI-CAMI-CAWI survey on a national representative sample of 800 adults.
THE QUORUM / YOUTREND SURVEY
The center-right is growing and the gap with the center-left coalition is growing. This is what emerges from the latest survey carried out by Quorum / YouTrend for SkyTg24 on the voting intentions of Italians, the first after the break between Action and the Democratic Party and the consequent separation between Calenda’s party and + Europa. In detail: FdI remains stable at 24.2%, while the Pd falls to 22.3% (-1.1%). The League registers a 14% (+ 0.5%) and the 5 Star Movement gets 10.6% (+ 0.7%). Forza Italia reaches 8.9% (+ 0.9%); Italian Left / Green Europe stood at 3.9% (-0.1%); ItalExit at 3.2% (+ 0.6%); Stock at 2% (last week it was taken over with + Europe), Italia Viva at 2.2% (-0.4%); Civic commitment at 1.5% (- 0.3%); + Europe at 1.6% (last week it was taken over with Action); We with Italy – Italy in the Center at 0.8%; Popular Union at 0.7%; Udc – Courage Italy at 0.3%. The share of undecided and abstentions is 38.7% *, a figure that equates to the low level of trust in politics (83%), even among those who still vote: a mistrust that often turns into anger , especially among voters (60%). The two main themes responsible for the progressive increase in abstention are – according to the survey – the particular interests of politicians (52%) and the failure of parties to keep their commitments (49%). The agreement on the priority of these two points is unanimous, with a peak among the voters of the 5 Star Movement (38%). For the survey, the figures in which people place even more trust are the President of the Republic Sergio Mattarella (62%) and Mario Draghi (56%). Followed by: Giorgia Meloni (40%), Silvio Berlusconi (36%), Giuseppe Conte (35%), Matteo Salvini (32%), Enrico Letta (25%), Luigi Di Maio (19%), Matteo Renzi (15%) ) and Carlo Calenda (16%). METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: Survey of 1,000 interviews conducted between 5 and 7 August 2022. The general margin of error is +/- 3.1%, with a confidence interval of 95%. * The survey on abstention data is based on a sample of 1,000 interviews conducted between 7 and 8 August 2022. The general margin of error is +/- 3.1%, with a confidence interval of 95%.
Source: Ansa
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