The Cattaneo Institute updates its estimates of last July 26, taking into account the possible presence of a further list (Italia Viva-Action), independent from the main coalitions, which could exceed the threshold for access to the distribution of seats on proportional bases. And on the basis of the 2019 European elections, the average of the polls published between the second week of July and the first of August, and – again – in the case of Iv-Action, the voting intentions expressed in the first 4 months of 2022, the resulting photograph is an enlargement of the center-right majority. Not such, however, Cattaneo warns, as to make it reach the share of two thirds of the Parliament which would allow constitutional reforms to be launched alone.
“In the previous analysis – reads the Institute’s dossier – we estimated the degree of contestability of the single-member constituencies and the probable overall distribution of seats between coalitions and non-coalitionized lists”. The previous estimate, therefore, had been produced assuming that in support of the candidates of the center-left coalition, the electorate complex converged which according to the July polls (the average of all those published) intended to vote for one of the theoretically placeable political forces. in that area: PD, Left, Verdi, Together for the Future (Di Maio), + Europe, Action (Calenda), Italia Viva (Renzi). Subsequent events have made it clear that the last two will not be part of the center-left coalition and that, according to the currently most accredited hypothesis, they could ally themselves giving life to an independent common list that the chance to overcome the 3% threshold. and therefore to have access to the distribution of the seats of the proportional share.
Overall, considering the averages of all the polls published between the second week of July and the first of August, the three center-right parties (FdI, Lega, FI) are attributed approximately 46% of voting intentions at national level, to the M5S just under 11%. To establish what share of votes it is plausible to attribute today to the center-left and to the hypothesized IV-Action list, Cattaneo uses the estimate of the voting intentions of the polls published in the first four months of 2022, when Action and + Europe were measured separately. The result brings the center-left to about 30%, the IV-Action list to 6%.