Erdogan moves away from threatened expulsion of Western diplomats

The ambassadorial crisis between Turkey and the West has been resolved – and both sides can claim to have got their point across.

The ten Western ambassadors threatened with expulsion by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stressed in identical messages on Monday that they were not interfering in Turkey’s internal affairs. Erdogan welcomed the clarification, as reported by the official news agency Anadolu. Accordingly, Turkey has decided not to declare the diplomats undesirable, although the ambassadors have not withdrawn their demand, criticized by Erdogan, for the release of the civil rights activist Osman Kavala. Erdogan supporters celebrated the result as Turkey’s triumph over the West. According to some observers, Kavala could soon be released as part of the compromise.

Erdogan had instructed the Turkish Foreign Ministry to declare the ambassadors of Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Canada, New Zealand, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and the USA to be undesirable. If the ministry had followed orders, the diplomats would have had to leave the country according to international custom. That would have been the worst crisis between Turkey and the West in half a century.

Turkey is threatened with expulsion from the Council of Europe

The ambassadors had drawn the president’s ire by demanding Kavala’s release. Erdogan accused them of wanting to regulate the Turkish judiciary. He regards Kavala as an enemy of the state and rejects the call of the European Human Rights Court to release the civil rights activist. Turkey is therefore threatened with expulsion from the Council of Europe.

The Turkish Foreign Office tried to defuse the crisis behind the scenes. As a result of the talks, the Western embassies announced on Monday via Twitter that they would continue to comply with Article 41 of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations of 1961. According to the article, foreign diplomats must comply with the laws of their host country. “You are also obliged not to interfere in its internal affairs.”

The explanation consists of a single sentence

After the compromise, the West can see its position confirmed that the demand for the implementation of international court judgments, as in the Kavala case, does not constitute interference in internal affairs. With their statement, which only consisted of a single sentence, the countries concerned are not withdrawing their demands for Kavala to be released from prison. Several governments announced over the weekend that they would stick to their position. Erdogan’s adviser Ilnur Cevik had demanded that the appeal in favor of Kavala must be withdrawn.

At the same time, however, the Turkish government can speak of a success about the West in front of its own voters because the Western ambassadors have pledged to comply with the Vienna Convention. Erdogan said he did not want to instigate crises, but merely protect “rights, honor and sovereignty” for Turkey. He added that no one would be tolerated in the country who did not respect Turkey’s independence and “sensibility”. A single sentence from Erdogan was enough to bring ten countries to their knees, cheered the pro-government journalist Ibrahim Karagül.

According to information from Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay from the US think tank Washington Institute, Erdogan will no longer receive the ambassadors concerned in his palace in Ankara with immediate effect. Human rights lawyer Orhan Kemal Cengiz wrote on Twitter that he would not be surprised if Kavala was released soon after the compromise. The trial of the civil rights activist will continue on November 26th. A few days later, the Council of Europe decides to start an exclusion procedure against Ankara.

However, the problems for the Turkish government are not over. She cannot expect countries like the US to simply go back to business after the threats against their ambassadors. All affected countries, including Turkey’s most important trading partners, would reduce their contacts with Ankara to a minimum, Turkey expert Cagaptay predicted. In addition, it is likely that US President Joe Biden will cancel his planned meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Rome at the weekend.

The Turkish opposition accuses Erdogan of wanting to use the ambassadorial crisis to blame foreign countries for Turkey’s serious economic problems. The lira has depreciated dramatically in recent times. Since the beginning of the year, the rate of the Turkish currency has fallen by almost 20 percent against the euro and by almost 24 percent against the dollar.