Response to the Ukraine war and Russia: NATO must invest in deterrence

Christoph Heusgen is chairman of the Munich Security Conference. He was previously Foreign and Security Policy Advisor to Chancellor Angela Merkel and Germany’s Ambassador to the United Nations.

After 277 days of war in Ukraine, the danger of becoming numb is growing. But there is no break for the Ukrainians. Every day people die, are injured and have to leave their homes.

Just a few days ago, an infant died after Russia attacked a maternity hospital in Zaporizhia. How low can Putin’s Russia sink?

We must therefore not let up in our support for Ukraine – whether as individuals, as a federal government or as NATO. We have to implement what has been decided, but also dare to do something new. How can this succeed? Three aspects are decisive for the NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Bucharest this Tuesday.

First, the meeting, six months after the NATO summit in Madrid, offers an opportunity to reinforce the agreements reached there. Progress must now be made on two important goals that were formulated in Spain’s capital.

On the one hand, the member states reaffirmed their intention to spend two percent of their country’s economic output on defense. However, it currently looks as if Germany will not reach this goal in either 2022 or 2023. Anyone who had hoped that the 100 billion euro special fund would fix everything was wrong.

Orders are being placed slowly. In view of inflation and price increases, there is already the question of where the cuts will be made. Meanwhile, the Bundeswehr continues to complain about a lack of equipment and gaping capacity gaps, for example in ammunition.

However, a serious response to the turning point requires secure funding and the political will to overcome bureaucratic hurdles. There must be no “keep it up”!

It is high time to take the threat to our partners in the region seriously.

Christoph Heusgen, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference

On the other hand, NATO decided in Madrid to strengthen the south-eastern flank, including through an increased troop presence. As a member country with the longest border to Ukraine and a strategic position on the Black Sea, Romania plays a key role in this.

For this reason, as the Munich Security Conference, we have also decided to host a top-class Munich Leaders Meeting in Bucharest for the first time on the sidelines of the NATO summit.

Take the threat seriously

It is high time to take the threat situation facing our partners in the region seriously and to jointly invest in deterrence. This helps keep us all safe. Currently, Ukraine is at the forefront when it comes to defending the rules-based order based on the UN Charter.

Secondly, we must continue to support the country to the best of our ability. First and foremost, it is about ensuring that there is enough replenishment for devices that have already been delivered. There are currently bottlenecks when ordering spare parts, for example for the Panzerhaubitze 2000.

Such omissions reduce Ukraine’s resilience – but so far no spare parts have been ordered for other weapon systems either. Germany can get even better here.

Unlike in 2008, one should no longer categorically rule out Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Christoph HeusgenChairman of the Munich Security Conference

But we must also be prepared to dare something new. For example, the proposal – also supported by the European Parliament – ​​to supply the Ukraine with Leopard 2 main battle tanks has been under discussion for a long time.

Germany would not have to act on its own, but could coordinate with twelve other European countries that also use the Leopard 2. In this way, resources can be pooled. For Ukraine, it would be concrete, immediate help in retaking the country.

The NATO star sculpture at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
The NATO star sculpture at NATO headquarters in Brussels.
© Photo: dpa/Panama Pictures/Christoph Hardt

Thirdly, Bucharest should also look at the long-term reorientation of the European security architecture. The city has already been the scene of historical decisions once before. In 2008, Germany, France and others had, with good reason, rejected Ukraine’s and Georgia’s desire to join NATO.

Credible security guarantees are needed

But times have changed. Russia’s breach of civilization, its aggressiveness and the fact that it does not keep to agreements such as the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, in which Russia guaranteed the territorial integrity of Ukraine, must make NATO rethink.

A ceasefire agreement or a peace treaty with Russia is not worth the paper on which Moscow’s officials sign unless there are credible security guarantees. Unlike in 2008, one should no longer categorically rule out Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Bucharest is just one of many steps that must be taken in the coming months and years to realign the European security architecture and defend the rules-based international order. The partners in south-eastern Europe must have an important voice in this process.

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Source: Tagesspiegel

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