Ukraine Invasion Day 290: Should Kiev soon fear an ammunition shortage?

The ammunition stocks of the Russian and Ukrainian armies have been an issue for months (here last again in the newsletter).

The “world” has now shown that Ukraine could also face an ammunition shortage in the long term, despite support from the West (source here).

Here are some facts and figures from the article and other sources:

• According to a British think tank, Ukraine fires around 40,000 artillery shells a month. The number coincides with information from the summer. At that time, Russia had about ten times as much consumption.
• To put this in context: The USA produces around 15,000 new artillery shells per month. However, according to Washington itself, it has already delivered more than a million artillery shells to Ukraine (source here). In addition, there are many thousands of projectiles of high-precision ammunition. The USA wants to increase production to 40,000 bullets per month by 2025.
• The US also plans to buy 100,000 artillery shells from South Korea and have them delivered to Ukraine.
• The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria want to restart the production of Soviet-made ammunition to support Ukraine. Kiev still has a lot of equipment from the time in use and is conquering new ones from Russian troops.

Overall, as the figures above show, Ukraine should be well supplied with ammunition for the next few months. That is also the conclusion drawn by Ukrainian soldiers at the front when they talk about their equipment. Unlike in the spring, the troops can now keep up with the Russians. These, in contrast, seem to have some major problems with missing ammunition.

The British “Guardian” quotes a Ukrainian soldier in the embattled Bakhmut (source here):

“The Russians shelled everything. It was like a wall of fire. Now they seem to have less ammo and use it more sparingly. During our recent battles here, we captured one of their radios. We could hear the Russian unit across from us requesting ammunition for artillery support, to which they said no ammunition was available.”

The most important news of the day at a glance:

• Prisoner exchange for arms dealers: Basketball player Griner returned to US after prisoner exchange Read more about this here.
• Video shows bizarre speech at Kremlin event: At an award ceremony, the Russian President justified the attacks on Ukraine’s energy supply. In a video, he seemed visibly drunk, observers speculate. You’ll find more about it here.
• Kremlin critic Ilya Yashin has been sentenced to eight and a half years in prison in Moscow for allegedly disparaging the Russian armed forces. The 39-year-old spoke of a political staging of the process. More on this in our news blog.
• According to information from Kiev, fake recruitment letters for the International Legion in Ukraine, which consists of foreigners, are in circulation in Germany. “The Ukrainian consulate has not sent any such letters,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Oleh Nikolenko said on Facebook.
• According to a media report, the United States wants to impose further sanctions on Russia and China. The measures were directed against human rights abuses by both countries, Russia’s use of Iranian drones in the war against Ukraine and Beijing’s support for alleged illegal fishing in the Pacific, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• Russian forces have launched new attacks in eastern Ukraine, according to Ukrainian sources. The entire front line in the Donetsk region is under fire, the region’s governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said on TV.
• According to British information, after a break of several weeks, Russia has probably attacked Ukraine again with the help of Iranian drones. If such reports are verified, it means that Russia has received supplies, said the British Ministry of Defense in its daily intelligence report.
• Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser continues to reject the IOC-approved return of Russian athletes to the international sports arena. “Sport should remain consistent in its condemnation of this inhuman war,” she told the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung”.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has lamented the threat posed by Russian mines on Ukrainian territory. “This is the form of Russian terror that we will have to deal with for years to come,” he said in his daily video message.

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