Chancellor decides on battle tanks: what Scholz is doing about the Leopard question

Abandoned assistance! Germany isolated! Europe divided! America pissed off! The allegations that Olaf Scholz has to listen to are sometimes devastating. However, he always repeats his line – again on Sunday in Paris stoically, according to which he proceeds in close coordination with the allies.

Scholz does not want to discuss the sensitive issues in front of an audience. The discussion process, says his government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit on Monday, “goes better the less public it is”. He outlines his boss as someone who “takes his time before he says things” even under pressure.

The communicative reluctance produces misunderstandings

Of course, the chancellor also produces huge misunderstandings. For example, the one that Germany said no to battle tanks at the defense ministers’ meeting on Friday. For Scholz, it was always clear that the matter had to be decided at the highest level, i.e. at his level, since there are still many unanswered questions and there has been “no unified opinion” among the allies, as his new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius reported from Ramstein.

In any case, the chancellor’s office considers German isolation to be a myth. The leopard statements from Poland, Finland or the Baltic States are more likely to be seen as a minority opinion. Great Britain, with the good dozen promised Challenger main battle tanks, is seen in a special role because of its turbulent domestic political situation after Brexit.

The nuclear powers France and the USA are decisive for Scholz – he believes he is in close contact with Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden.

Only together with the USA in the higher risk

The premise formulated almost a year ago that NATO must not be directly involved in the war plays a more central role than ever. How can the West increase military aid without risking a world war?

Supporters of Leopard deliveries argue that the escalation dominance lies with Russian President Vladimir Putin anyway, and that one should not allow oneself to be paralyzed by the nuclear fear, which the Kremlin is deliberately toying with. Nevertheless, Scholz discusses the question of what danger would also be associated for Germany if German battle tanks met Russian ones directly in Ukraine.

We will continue our support for as long as necessary and with the resources necessary to do so.

Olaf Scholz, Federal Chancellor

In Washington as well as in Berlin, there is also a discussion about what it could mean to enable Kyiv with Leopards to offensively break through Russian front lines and advance to Crimea, which was annexed in 2014.

Although the occupation has never been acknowledged by the West, some consider it at least worth considering that Putin could react differently to defeats on the Black Sea peninsula than in the areas recaptured from Ukraine in the summer, which had also already been declared Russian territory.

Scholz also knows arguments for a delivery

Of course, Scholz is no stranger to the arguments for re-equipping the Ukrainian army. The wear and tear is great. Also, in the near future it may not be about the liberation of further areas, but again about preventing a Ukrainian defeat.

There are increasing signs of further Russian mobilization and a major offensive in the spring. That’s why Scholz has just renewed the commitment to support the defense of Ukraine, “with the means necessary to do so”.

According to reports, the talks are about getting as many European Ukraine supporters as possible to hand over a smaller number of Leopard tanks so that they can collectively make a difference. But Scholz insists that the Americans are involved.

It does not necessarily have to be Abrams tanks that the US military has technical concerns about sending. It is therefore possible that an alternative but equivalent contribution is being discussed.

Scholz draws the lesson from the 1979 NATO double-track decision-making process that no doubts about nuclear deterrence by the USA should arise. Since they have supported Ukraine the most so far, this Scholz position has also been criticized. On the other hand, he draws the conclusion from his oath of office that he can only take more risks in relation to Ukraine together with Biden.

Now there is talk of “under what conditions”, according to the government spokesman, Leopard tanks could be delivered. The forthcoming decision is “not a question of months” anymore. It’s obvious that time is of the essence – also in view of his increasingly critical traffic light coalition partners.

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