Putin’s neighbors want more help: “For peace in Europe we need a German leadership role”

During the landing approach from the east towards the Estonian capital of Tallinn, Russia can be seen on the horizon. It’s less than 200 kilometers from here to the border. Here in the Baltics, in the three former Soviet republics that declared independence from Moscow in the early 1990s, the concern that, after Ukraine, they too could be invaded is both real and real.

“We have many important issues to discuss before the NATO summit,” said Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas as she welcomed Olaf Scholz to her official residence on Tallinn’s Toompea on Friday afternoon. An entry in the guest book follows, the chancellor from Hamburg is happy to be a guest in an old Hanseatic city that used to be called Reval.

But then things quickly get serious: the talks focus on the war in Ukraine, the consequences for the western defense alliance and bilateral military support.

Reminds of the duty of assistance

Almost a year ago, Olaf Scholz was Chancellor for the first time in the region, in Lithuania, where the Bundeswehr is stationed. Even then, it was a question of assuring the three NATO members that the duty of assistance under Article 5 of the transatlantic treaty really applies.

Now Kallas, as well as Latvia’s Prime Minister Arturs Krisjanis Karins and Lithuania’s Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte, who will join them later, will again hear a reassurance of this kind. “We are ready,” says Scholz, “to defend every square centimeter of NATO territory.”

The three Baltic heads of government like to hear that. But they insist on further commitments, preferably additional Bundeswehr personnel. “Not only can we adopt the new NATO defense plans at the summit, they must also be backed with more money and more troops on the ground,” says Simonyte, the host of the Vilnius summit in just over six weeks. Your country is already building the infrastructure for more German soldiers.

Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, which has also brought attention back to NATO’s eastern flank, German support has already been increased significantly. Since then, the Luftwaffe has taken over the so-called air policing, a kind of air patrol on the edge of the alliance area, with its Eurofighters for all three Baltic states.

“We are ready to defend every square inch of NATO territory.”

Chancellor Olaf Scholz during his visit to Estonia

The Navy shows a larger presence in the Baltic Sea. The number of soldiers at the Rukla military base in Lithuania has been increased from 1,000 to 1,500. The “robust combat brigade” with around 3,000 men, which Scholz had promised at the NATO summit in Madrid last year, is created by the fact that another 1,500 forces are ready in Germany and can be deployed immediately in an emergency. Your device is already on site.

However, Scholz has not made any further commitments this Friday. He merely announces that the part of the brigade stationed in Germany will practice its own transfer to Lithuania in the coming weeks. Everything else, such as an additional troop presence, would have to be decided within the framework of NATO – the Chancellor did not let his cards be looked at.

German missile protection for the summit?

At least for the summit itself there will be support. Lithuania has requested that the meeting of heads of state and government on July 11 and 12 be protected with Patriot anti-missiles from Germany – in line with Scholz’s visit, the request will be approved by the Defense Ministry on Friday evening.

The Chancellor’s visit to Tallinn did not bring any new insights into Germany’s position regarding Ukraine’s NATO accession. It is clear that the three Baltic heads of government have again urged him to take a clearer position on this issue.

Like NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who sees Kiev’s future in the alliance and how the Baltics are putting pressure on this issue before the summit. “In terms of stability, we need Ukraine in the EU and in NATO,” said Estonian host Kaja Kallas.

At least outwardly, the chancellor is not impressed by this. He thinks it’s premature to think about joining NATO. First of all, according to his interpretation, Ukraine must be put in a position militarily in order to be able to actually think about a post-war order – with weapons and ammunition. “That is the question at stake now.”

The Lithuanian Simonyte hears that, counters and says that it would be “sad” if Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin could claim the upcoming NATO summit as a success if no clear accession prospects for Kiev were formulated there.

In the Baltic States, there are fears that people are once again thinking too small. Like after Russia’s attack on Georgia in 2008 or the capture of Crimea in 2014. “We’re paying the price for our hesitant action back then,” says Latvia’s Prime Minister Karins. Kaja Kallas addresses Scholz directly: “For peace in Europe we need a German leadership role.”