What Merkel is planning now – and how the traffic lights lurch

The process is the same as previous corona crises, but Angela Merkel is only the managing chancellor. That’s what makes it so complicated. Only in the morning does the Leopoldina, the National Academy of Sciences, come with a new statement on the topic: “Antiviral agents against SARS-CoV-2”.

Tucked away at the end of the foreword to the 29-page paper is advice from President Gerald Haug that has it all.

In the fourth wave there is a “lack of prevention, clear rules and stringency,” emphasizes Haug. “But there are still ways to improve our instruments for containing the pandemic: a more appropriate regulation for the disclosure of the vaccination status in the occupational health and safety ordinance, a greater scope of application of the 2G rule and vaccination obligations for multiplier groups.”

What comes into question is explosive: an obligation to provide proof of vaccination at the workplace (otherwise corona tests must be submitted) and an obligation to vaccinate for professional groups such as carers and teachers.

A Leopoldina statement has often come first – and then the Chancellor declared that a conference of prime ministers was urgently needed in order to decide on drastic measures.

Merkel values ​​the advice of the advisory committee and is in the current crisis as an advocate of at least one nationwide 2G solution (access only for vaccinated and convalescent people), which her likely successor Olaf Scholz does not want so far. Above all, the FDP is sitting on his neck. The traffic light parties want to leave that to the federal states, in Berlin 2G comes from Monday.

And that’s where the problems begin. Is that enough? The Bavarian district of Rottal-Inn has a record incidence of 1104 on Wednesday. The Robert Koch Institute has to use the color purple in its Corona map of Germany for the first time, for a district with a 7-day incidence over 1000.

Many citizens, the media and the federal government, including Merkel and Health Minister Jens Spahn (CDU), have apparently underestimated the situation. In the summer there was a general election campaign, at some point the vaccination rate stagnated, the mood was: We made it. There were debates about a “Freedom Day”.

But still only 67.3 percent are fully immunized – it was the SPD health expert Karl Lauterbach who repeatedly pointed out the inadequate vaccination campaign by the federal government and the federal states.

To overcome the pandemic, 85 percent would be necessary. Many vaccination centers have been closed, but the situation shows that a higher vaccination rate and millions of third-party vaccinations are needed quickly, because the number of vaccination breakthroughs is high.

The number of corona intensive care patients has risen to 2739, around 20 percent more than a week ago, with a total of around 19,740 intensive care beds occupied, only 2417 beds are free. There are therefore not many options for action.

Merkel wants a quick federal-state summit – and already has ideas for decisions

Merkel has waited, also because she wants an understanding with Scholz. But shortly after the Leopoldina statement, government spokesman Steffen Seibert announced that Merkel wanted a speedy conference of prime ministers. She is in close contact with the countries and the possible future coalition parties.

“The virus takes no account of political processes or transition periods,” says Seibert. Everyone felt the same responsibility to avert harm to the population – “whether in the old or in the new federal government”. This can certainly be understood as a reminder to Scholz that action should now be coordinated nationwide and swiftly.

Merkel wants, among other things, stricter controls of the 2G and 3G regulations in order to increase the vaccination pressure, and there should also be a uniform clinic occupancy threshold above which additional measures could take effect.

The expansion of the 2G regulations and the vaccination rate would certainly also be discussed.

But several SPD-led countries are just as critical of a Prime Minister’s conference as Scholz, because expectations are aroused that can hardly be met. On the one hand, the health ministers have already decided on nationwide booster vaccinations for everyone whose last vaccination was six months ago. Some vaccination centers are also reopening.

On the other hand, there are serious regional differences. In Schleswig-Holstein and Bremen the corona incidence is below 100, in Lower Saxony it is 106, where the intensive care bed occupancy by corona patients is only 5.7 percent. To order 2G nationwide in these countries could quickly be overturned by administrative courts.

Wrong signal at the wrong time?

In terms of timing, things went suboptimally for the traffic light parties. When they presented their Corona plan on October 27, the incidence was still below 100, now it is nationwide at 232, there is a threat of overloading the health system, mainly because there is a lack of intensive care staff and therefore bed capacities have been reduced. It would take revenge that politicians, out of consideration for those who oppose vaccination, refrained from more “vaccination pressure”, is acknowledged internally.

The expiry of the epidemic situation of national scope on November 25th with special federal rights of penetration seems strange in view of the increasing numbers.

The SPD, the Greens and the FDP can hardly collect their first major project again. It will be discussed in the Bundestag on Thursday, Scholz will speak. With the package, which is to be decided by the Bundestag and Bundesrat by November 19, lockdowns, business closings, contact restrictions and curfews are no longer possible.

From a legal point of view, this may be indicated in view of the large number of vaccinated citizens, argues Scholz. But to declare the end of the emergency in parliament, while Bavaria is declaring a disaster because of full clinics, is difficult to communicate.

The return of the free citizen tests

Actually, the traffic light is not far from many demands, with the exception of the suspension of the national pandemic, which the Union wants to extend, for example. 2G and 3G regulations remain possible everywhere, but are a matter for the federal states and should not be imposed nationwide.

In addition, there will soon be a 3G obligation at the workplace, unvaccinated people will have to submit daily negative tests there as well as in old people’s and nursing homes. As a first accompanying measure in order to discover more cases earlier, the free citizen tests with one test per week and person are to be reintroduced from next week.

According to a draft ordinance by the acting Federal Health Minister Spahn, citizens should be prevented from foregoing tests due to financial considerations – and passed on the virus without being noticed.

The power of the FDP

Election winner Scholz needs the FDP for his chancellorship, the new regulations with fewer nationwide requirements and more freedoms clearly bear their signature. But this is increasingly causing displeasure among health politicians from the SPD and the Greens. In parts of the Greens there are fears that dealing with the pandemic could fall on the traffic lights: “We got lost there,” they say. One should not have given in so far and so quickly to the insistence of the liberals.

The Green health politician Janosch Dahmen takes up the Leopoldina demand and demands: “One Job-specific vaccination is mandatory due to the dicey pandemic situation is now necessary to protect life. ”But so far this is not a majority position.

If it is only a matter of enforcing its own positions, the FDP can view the draft law as a success. The closings of schools, businesses or shops, which were made possible by the epidemic situation, are disproportionate today and would not last in court because of the large number of people who had been vaccinated.

The fact that the federal government was able to make decisions that are otherwise reserved for parliament because of the epidemic situation has always been a thorn in the side of the FDP. However, the current development shows that the decision-making processes in parliament can take a little longer in such a crisis situation. The regulations can only be decided at the end of next week.

Even the liberals notice that this fourth wave is massive. On Wednesday, the parliamentary managing director of the FDP, Marco Buschmann, who helped to develop the concept, had to justify himself on Deutschlandfunk. In terms of mandatory vaccination for nurses, he argues with the concern that nurses who are unwilling to vaccinate could quit the job. When the moderator countered that that was exactly what did not happen in countries like France, Buschmann began to lurch and emphasized: “This is the area that you have to think about most intensively.”

But in the direction of Merkel, Buschmann also makes it clear that she should, if you please, hold back, that she is only in office in an executive position. The corona policy is now being made by the Bundestag and the federal states.

The only question is whether the traffic light will get through with its plan – and whether it will be enough to protect as many lives as possible and break the wave.