Will Afghanistan become a terrorist stronghold again?

Afghanistan is sinking into chaos. The Taliban have already conquered more than half of the country, and fighting is ongoing in the rest of the country. At the weekend Kunduz also fell to the Islamists, on Monday the provincial capital Aibak. The takeover of Kunduz is a shock for the Federal Republic – the Bundeswehr operated a large field camp there. Now there is growing concern that the Taliban could overrun Afghanistan – and pave the way for new terror.

Will the country become a terrorist stronghold again under the Taliban?

The Islamist terror scene never completely disappeared from Afghanistan, even after the Taliban’s state of God collapsed in 2001. Fighters from the Taliban, Al Qaeda and other groups withdrew into the Afghan-Pakistani border area after the American invasion. There the terror scene was able to build up new structures, protected by Pashtun tribes and presumably with the knowledge of the Pakistani secret service.

Serious attacks were planned from the border region, including in Germany. The “Sauerland Group”, a group of German jihadists, had stayed in the tribal areas and in 2007 prepared attacks on US facilities in the Federal Republic of Germany.

Security circles say Al Qaeda fighters are involved in the Taliban’s current offensive. The international terrorist organization also helps the Taliban with training recruits, tactical advice and money. Al Qaeda has been financially supported by sponsors from Arab countries, especially from the Gulf States, for decades.

Security experts also point to individual Al Qaeda training camps in Afghanistan, especially in the south, in Helmand province. It is feared that after a Taliban victory in the country, as it did before 2001, the terrorist organization will again have a “safe haven” – from which massive attacks on the West could be planned. In the worst case, it is said, a terrorist attack on the scale of 9/11 would repeat itself.

Al Qaeda itself claimed on the Internet in April that it was attacking government troops in 18 of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces. According to the terrorist organization, allies are involved in the attacks, including the Pakistani Taliban and the Pakistani groups Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. These two carried out serious attacks in India.

The “Islamic State” (IS) terrorist militia is also active in Afghanistan. However, it is being opposed by the Taliban and Al Qaeda. However, security experts worry that ISIS could also establish itself in Afghanistan in the long term.

Has the West been fooled by the Taliban in the peace negotiations?
In February 2020, the US and Taliban negotiators concluded a peace agreement in Qatar’s capital Doha. The Islamists promised the Americans that in return for their withdrawal from Afghanistan, they would guarantee that the country would not become a safe haven for al Qaeda and other terrorist organizations again. This is exactly what the then US President Donald Trump wanted to hear in order to be able to celebrate the agreement as a historic advance.

But the US intelligence services remained skeptical. In January 2021, shortly before Trump’s departure as president, a dossier by the US Treasury Department, which has its own secret service, said that Al Qaeda was gaining strength in Afghanistan through joint operations with the Taliban and through their protection. The Al Qaeda network is “embedded” in the Taliban.

In May 2021, a report by the US military intelligence service, the Defense Intelligence Agency, on the situation in Afghanistan became known. The paper says that Al Qaeda continues to trust in the protection of the Taliban. Both organizations have strengthened their ties in the past few decades.

How likely is a new military intervention by the West against the Taliban?
The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Norbert Röttgen (CDU), has suggested a new massive international military operation against the Taliban. This is necessary in their own security interests, this is the only way to squeeze political concessions from the Taliban – and in an emergency, the Bundeswehr must also participate, he said at the weekend.

Opposition, also from within the own party, came promptly. Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) also made it clear on Monday that she was skeptical of the proposal. “The reports from Kunduz and all over Afghanistan are bitter and hurt a lot,” she tweeted. Anyone who wants a new deployment of the Bundeswehr must ask the question whether German society and the Bundestag are ready “to go into a tough military conflict again in Afghanistan”. It does not look like that at the moment, as politicians from other parties have emphasized.

In addition: Without the leading power of the USA, even a coalition of EU and NATO countries would not have the military capabilities to fight the Taliban effectively.

Without military intervention, the West has few levers. The United Nations imposed massive sanctions on the Taliban, including entry and account bans. They want to have this canceled. They also want international recognition after taking over government. A government dominated by the Taliban would also have to rely on foreign aid funds, from which a large part of the state budget is fed. However, Western states have little confidence that they can use these levers to exert pressure on the Taliban.

Will the advance of the Taliban drive Afghans to flee to Europe?
Austria’s Chancellor Sebastian Kurz sent a kind of wake-up call to the European Union (EU) at the end of July to prepare for an onslaught of refugees from Afghanistan. The withdrawal of Western troops from the country would “lead to migration flows,” he warned and recommended a tough policy of deterrence.

In fact, there are many indications that more people are already fleeing from Afghanistan to neighboring countries and, above all, through Iran to Turkey. Their numbers could increase significantly if the Taliban bring even more provinces under their control. The number of civilian victims has reached a record level with the start of the withdrawal of international troops – as has the number of internally displaced persons. How many refugees from the country will make it to the EU’s external border in the coming months cannot be reliably predicted.

The EU should nevertheless arm itself, recommends Gerald Knaus, founder of the think tank “European Stability Initiative”. He suggested that the states whose soldiers fought in Afghanistan for 20 years should now face up to their responsibilities. Together they should help Afghan refugees in countries of first reception – especially in Turkey, where four million displaced persons from other countries are already living.

There, the mood against refugees threatens to change, since the question of admitting more asylum seekers became a topic of the election campaign. Knaus argues that support for refugee projects in Turkey through a new refugee pact with the EU in the billions and by other countries is “also in the interests of the Europeans”.

How is the Afghanistan disaster being debated in the USA?

According to surveys, large majorities in both political camps support President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan by the end of August, even if this leads to significant land gains for the Taliban. “After 20 years the Afghan war is over for us,” describes the “New York Times” the prevailing thinking in the White House and in military circles. The US and its allies had equipped and trained the Afghan army. Now she has to fight the Taliban on her own initiative.

Afghanistan is at the same psychological turning point as Iraq after the US withdrawal, the paper quotes an Iraq veteran. Back then, too, it took some time for the Iraqi army to switch from training to combat mode. She only fought consistently for the future of the country when she stood “with her back to the wall”. In the case of Iraq, however, the US had to change course after the first withdrawal and had returned with a limited air force contingent to support the fight against IS from the air.

In Afghanistan, US air support for the local army is currently provided from bases outside the country and an aircraft carrier. But it is not enough to stop the advance of the Taliban. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had predicted this development in the spring and advised Biden against a full withdrawal.

The case of Kunduz is certainly not enough to make Biden rethink, judges the “New York Times”. Only when Kandahar falls or the capital Kabul is included, where the US maintains an embassy with 4,000 employees, a situation could arise that would force Biden to act.