It was not the trigger that was wrong, but the war

If what the vernacular says that insight is the first way to get better is true, then German security experts are still in the starting blocks. Because they are far from understanding the failure in Afghanistan. The war was wrong. That should be obvious. It cost a trillion dollars, lasted almost 20 years, and 50,000 Afghan civilians were killed.

The radical Islamic Taliban control large parts of the country again. The terrorist organization Al Qaeda has reorganized itself in other countries. The hope that democracy and human rights could be exported has also not been fulfilled. Twenty more years of intervention would have changed little.

There is no self-critical debate

Those who do not want to admit these facts take refuge in illusions. It is said that it was not the war that was wrong, but the withdrawal of US soldiers. Norbert Röttgen, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag, even speaks of the “first major foreign policy disaster” that arose from the “wrong decision” made by American President Joe Biden. Biden’s predecessors, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, wanted to get out of Afghanistan as soon as possible. Only those who want to be surprised in order to be able to shift the blame for its consequences are now surprised by the withdrawal.

Because the deployment of the Bundeswehr has always been approved by a large parliamentary alliance – Union, FDP, a majority of the SPD and the Greens – there is no self-critical debate about it. The admissibility of deportations is discussed, the truly lamentable fate of the Afghan people is lamented, and local staff who had worked with the Bundeswehr and who now fear the Taliban’s revenge are being admitted. One thing is clear: the debacle left by NATO must not result in the end of all development-policy and humanitarian obligations.

Cyberwar has long been more dangerous than terrorism

But the bitter experience of the West in Afghanistan also teaches us that security policy must be rethought. Old school military interventions are hardly suitable for contributing to world peace. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Mali: the results are not very encouraging. Nevertheless, the question of army equipment revolves around tanks, submarines, fighter jets and machine guns. The sending of the frigate “Bavaria” to the Indo-Pacific to deter China is downright moving in its symbolism.
US secret services assume that cyberwar has long posed a greater threat than terrorism. Artificial intelligence, drones, hackers, laptops, viruses – these are the keywords that must be at the center of a future-oriented security debate. Countries like the USA, China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and Israel are investing billions of dollars to be prepared for the button war.
An alarming number became known a few days ago. Cyber ​​attacks hit companies in Germany with a force that threatens their very existence. The damage last year amounted to 223 billion euros. This year’s defense budget is 46.9 billion euros.