It is probably the most blatant misjudgment in the days before the fall of Kabul. On Friday, August 13, a high-ranking representative of the Federal Intelligence Service (BND) in the federal government’s crisis team stated that the “Taliban leadership is currently not interested in taking Kabul by military means”. This emerges from an excerpt from the minutes that is available to the Tagesspiegel from the meeting.
The takeover of Kabul by the Taliban before September 11 was “rather unlikely,” said the BND representative. Two days later, on Sunday August 15, the Taliban captured Kabul. Accordingly, the intervening Deputy Ambassador of Germany in Afghanistan, Jan Hendrik van Thiel, clearly contradicts this.
The Bundeswehr’s evacuation campaign only starts on Monday morning. The information from the foreign secret service is normally an important basis for decisions by the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU).
In government circles, the secret services are now repeatedly referred to, who did not expect such a march through by the Taliban – and a non-fighting abandonment of the Afghan army including the escape of President Ashraf Ghani. The problem was also that there was less valid information after the withdrawal of the NATO armed forces.
Since the pace of the Taliban’s advance was underestimated on all sides, there is only now the possibility of issuing visas and carrying out security checks for former Afghan aid workers after they have arrived in Germany – but because the Taliban have set up many checkpoints around the airport , many people wanting to leave the country are trapped and do not know how to get to the airport. The state interior ministers had already asked for such an unbureaucratic visa to be issued in Germany two months ago.
The risky evacuation operation at the airport in the Afghan capital Kabul can last until September 30th at the latest. This emerges from the decision of the Federal Cabinet of Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) on Wednesday, which is available to the Tagesspiegel.
“Within the framework of available capacities, the evacuation should also extend to personnel of the international community and other designated persons, including particularly vulnerable representatives of Afghan civil society,” said Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (CDU) and Foreign Minister in the cover letter Heiko Maas (SPD) emphasizes.
Up to 600 soldiers can be deployed. “The additional expenditures for the deployment of armed German armed forces will probably total around 40 million euros by September 30, 2021,” emphasized the ministers. “With the implosion of the Afghan government and the takeover of power by the Taliban, the local security structures in the capital Kabul collapsed. The location is extremely confusing. “
The operation, the cost of which is estimated at 40 million euros, is in accordance with the constitutional requirements for operations by armed German armed forces abroad, “in particular on the basis of Article 87a paragraphs 1 and 2 of the Basic Law”.
According to the cabinet, the Bundestag is to approve the new mandate retrospectively on August 25. This is possible because the government sees “imminent danger”. The days before the evacuation operation, which started very late, and the months of several ministries getting caught up in the question of which local workers are allowed to go to Germany, how and when, also raised the question of Merkel’s federal government’s responsibility for this. And whether several days were not lost because of procedural issues.
The Tagesspiegel has a document in which lawyers from the Foreign Office also submitted a statement on Friday (August 13) on “Parliamentary participation in the deployment of military forces to secure our measures in Kabul”. At this point in time, the Bundeswehr was ready for the evacuation mission.
The most important point: The existing Afghanistan mandate approved by the Bundestag for the participation of armed German forces in the NATO-led “Resolute Support” mission is still valid until January 31, 2022 and is “a sufficient basis for such a deployment”. Merkel and Kramp-Karrenbauer insisted on working out a new mandate, and the rescue operation from Germany only started on Monday morning. The Chancellery denies that the mandate issue caused a delay.
Can the Taliban be urged for safe conduct?
The question of how the Afghans who are trapped in Kabul and hoping to leave the country can even get to the military part of the airport secured by the US armed forces is becoming more and more central, as the Taliban are setting up more and more checkpoints.
Merkel will visit Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. Can he possibly influence the Taliban so that they also give Afghan local forces safe conduct? “You have to talk to the Taliban at some point,” it says in German government circles. Markus Potzel, formerly Ambassador to Kabul himself and since 2017 the Federal Government’s Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, is to sound out what is feasible in Doha, there are representatives of Qatar, US negotiators are there – and representatives of the Taliban.
I am a technology author with 8 years of experience in journalism. My writing covers the latest technology advancements and trends, drawing on my expertise in news journalism and social media platforms. I have contributed to major media outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Reuters.
