In Italy, the growth of all the curves of the Covid-19 epidemic continues both at national level and in the regions, in 18 of which the incidence is increasing. This is indicated by the analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing ‘M. Picon’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
“All the curves of the epidemic grow nationally, from the percentage of positives to molecular tests to the incidence of total positives to molecular tests and rapid antigenic, up to the daily admissions to intensive care. There is also a weak daily growth of the curve. average number of deaths “, Sebastiani observes. “In 18 regions there is an increase in incidence in the past week compared to the previous one – says the expert – and the analysis of the weekly percentage differences reveals a growth trend”.
The data indicate a growth trend for the curve of hospitalizations in ordinary wards in the autonomous province of Bolzano (occupancy level 7.5%), Friuli Venezia Giulia (4%), Lazio (5%) and Molise (3%); a growth trend for the curve of admissions to intensive care in Campania (4%) and Liguria (6%).
Here are the 18 regions in which an increase in the incidence and growth trend is observed: the first value indicates the incidence of total positives in the last week and the second the increase compared to two weeks ago: Abruzzo (36 cases in week per 100,000 inhabitants – 76%), autonomous province of Bolzano (88 – 45%), Calabria (45 – 22%), Campania (43 – 34%), Emilia Romagna (42 – 30%), Friuli Venezia Giulia (66 – 58%), Lazio (45 – 51%), Liguria (30 – 15%), Lombardy (25 – 27%), Marche (40 – 66%), Molise (15 – 147%,), Piedmont (36 – 30%), Puglia (25 – 52%), Sicily (44 – 28%), Tuscany (44 – 16%), Trento (45 – 56%), Umbria (50 – 126%), Veneto (53 – 19%) ). For Molise, in the interpretation of the large percentage value, the low value of the incidence and that of the population must be taken into account.
Threshold of 65% of the population vaccinated for cases and deaths: European data say so
65% of the vaccinated population is the threshold value, in each country, to be able to keep cases of Covid-19 under control. The data relating to the trend of the epidemic in European countries indicate this: “among the 27 states of the European Union, Romania and Bulgaria record the two values of the average number of daily deaths per million inhabitants in the last seven days and have the fourth and fifth average value greater than that of the incidence of positives. They are also in the last two places for vaccination coverage “.
Sebastiani then observes that, “although the analysis of the data reveals that there is no evidence of a decreasing linear relationship, probably due to the influence of other factors, it seems that the 65% threshold of vaccination coverage plays a relevant role on the incidence of positives and deaths “.
In fact, the expert continues, “among the states with the 10 highest incidence values, 9 have a vaccination coverage lower than 65%, while among those with the 10 lowest values, 8 have a vaccination coverage higher than 65%. The result is even more evident for deaths since in all 10 states with the highest mortality vaccination coverage is less than 65%, while in 9 of the 10 with the lowest mortality coverage is greater than 65%.
“These results – notes the mathematician – show that vaccination coverage below 65% seems to be a necessary condition for high incidence and mortality, while being above 65% seems to be necessary to have low incidence and mortality. two conditions does not hold due to the presence of other factors “.
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