Ice-free arctic summer closer, already since 2030 With a decade in advance compared to current forecasts The Arctic could be completely ice-free already at the end of summer 2030, a decade earlier than expected so far: this is suggested by the study published in the journal Nature Communications and led by the University of Science and Technology of Pohang, in South Korea. The research highlights the significant impact of human activities on the Arctic even in a low greenhouse gas emissions scenario. The new predictions demonstrate the importance of planning and adaptation to a seasonally sea-ice-free Arctic in a nearer future than previously thought.
Each year, Arctic sea ice goes through a seasonal cycle, growing in size and thickness during the coldest winter months, before shrinking as temperatures rise in the spring and summer, with the lowest usually occurring in September. In recent decades, however, the Arctic ice it has been declining rapidly during all seasons, with an increase in decline recorded starting in 2000.
An Arctic free of sea ice would affect human societies and natural ecosystems both inside and outside the Arctic, for example by changing ocean currents, altering the carbon cycle and further accelerating the warming of this area. In fact, as ice surfaces decrease, darker offshore areas absorb more heat, causing ocean temperatures to rise and initiating a cycle of warming and melting.
Researchers led by Yeon-Hee Kim analyzed the data collected from 1979 to 2019, to build a model that can show ice trends in the future under different conditions. The findings suggest that the human impact on Arctic sea ice decline can be observed throughout the year and can largely be attributed to increased greenhouse gas emissions. The contributions of natural factors such as solar and volcanic activity were instead much lower.
Furthermore, the data indicate that the Arctic could become ice-free in summer between 2030 and 2050, under all greenhouse gas emission scenarios simulated: this contrasts with previous assessments, which for lower emissions levels did not predict a sea ice-free Arctic summer. Therefore, if on the one hand the Montreal Protocol of 1987 to reduce the hole in the ozone layer made it possible to postpone the dreaded first Arctic summer without ice by about ten years (as stated by a study published last month in the journal PNAS of the American Academy of Sciences), the human activities at the origin of greenhouse gas emissions seem to leave no way out for the Arctic ice
Source: Ansa
I am a journalist with over 6 years of experience working in the news industry. I currently work as an author for Global Happenings, and my coverage focuses on Technology news. I have written for various publications, including Reuters, The New York Times and The Guardian.
