In Lazio, Liguria, Marche and in the province of Trento are observed “abrupt changes“Of the numbers of hospitalizations, in ordinary wards or in intensive care, with increases that bring these regions near or beyond one of the two thresholds for entry into the yellow zone. The analysis of the mathematician Giovanni Sebastiani, of the Institute for the Applications of Computing ‘M. Picone’, of the National Research Council (Cnr).
“Lazio has exceeded the 10% threshold of intensive care: after being in stasis last week for the ordinary wards, with an average value of about 11%, today it has risen to 12%”, observes the mathematician .
In Liguria, a similar situation can be observed: “this region also exceeded the 10% threshold for intensive care, and in one day the occupancy of ordinary wards increased by about 1.5%, reaching about 11.5% “.
Even the Marches, continues Sebastiani, “in the last two days have undergone an increase of about 2.5% in intensive care, thus rising to 12%, therefore over the 10% threshold. In the ordinary departments, employment is approximately 10.5% “.
In the autonomous province of Trento, the sharp increase of about 2.5% recorded in the last two days concerns the ordinary departments, which thus rose to 12.5%; intensive care is 9%.
“The abrupt changes observed in this phase in various regions are probably linked to the great diffusivity of the variant currently prevalent in Italy – notes Sebastiani – and highlight the importance of increasing vaccination coverage, especially in the 12-19 range, where it is at 57 % “. Equally important, he continues, is “carrying out the third doses and implementing the preventive measures that have proved effective to limit the spread of the epidemic, such as wearing a mask in all risk conditions, outdoors or not, and limiting as far as possible the number of contacts “.
In Calabria increased beds or in yellow
For Sebastiani, based on the data of December 6 relating to hospital employment, released by the Civil Protection and those on the capacity of the ordinary and intensive care wards published by the National Agency for Regional Health Services (Agenas), if the availability does not increase of beds in the ordinary and intensive care wards, Calabria seems destined to enter the yellow zone soon. It has already exceeded the employment thresholds for both types of departments and the trend is growing.
The data, notes the matemarico, indicate that “Calabria is 15.5% for the ordinary wards and 11% for those of intensive care. For both types of curves, the trend is one of growth. The region therefore has yellow zone numbers and it is almost certain that it will also be the same on Tuesday 7 December, the day of the week to which the weekly monitoring on Friday refers ”. The expert also notes that “with these data, the only possibility for Calabria to avoid entering the yellow zone is to increase the capacity of the departments, as happened in Lombardy”.
This Region has in fact increased the capacity of the ordinary departments by about 1,250 units from 5 to 6 December, “thus decreasing to 12.5%” and “has thus extended the expected time to four weeks, with the current rate of increase, for exceeding the threshold of 15% “. Again for Lombardy”, however, the forecast of exceeding the threshold of 10% of intensive care (whose capacity has remained unchanged) between the end of the current week and the beginning of the next is confirmed ” .
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Source From: Ansa
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