The numbers of the Covid-19 epidemic in Italy show an estimated growth trend of 172% in 30 days, corresponding to an increase from 598,856 total positive cases as of December 28 to 1,628,940. This is indicated by the analyzes of statistician Livio Fenga, senior lecturer of the Center for Analysis, Simulation and Models of the British University of Exeter.
“The situation – says Fenga to ANSA – raises concern for the large percentage increases expected, located above all in the North”, which “could drive the spread also in the South”.
At the moment, the expert continues, “increases of at least 100% are expected for 10 Italian regions, half of which in Northern Italy, with peaks of 265% and 400% in Emilia Romagna and Veneto”. The forecasts for these two regions, added together, are close to 600,000 cases (597,176).
“For three out of four regions of central Italy – he continues – increases of over 100% are expected: from 105% in Lazio to 200% in Tuscany”. The southern regions “appear to be more virtuous” as “only in two cases are there expected increases of more than 100%: in Molise (123%) and in Puglia (249%). The major islands show expected increases in the order 30% (Sardinia) and 86% (Sicily) “.
According to Fenga’s estimates, “migrations from one region to another of positive subjects, mainly driven by phenomena attributable to second homes or work trips” seem to play an important role: this is indicated by the analysis technique called ‘Cross entropy’, or ‘crossed entropy’ between two probability distributions relative to the same set of events. “The estimation of this type of mathematical function has given rise, for example, to statistically significant ‘exchange’ results for the regions of Lombardy, Liguria and Piedmont”.
Admissions are estimated to increase by 30% as of January 27
Fenga’s estimates also indicate that hospitalizations for Covid-19 are destined to increase at a much slower rate than that of new positive cases and an increase of 30% is expected for January 27.
“These are more contained increases, on average of 30%,” Fenga told ANSA. “Leading the ranking of increases Lombardy (+ 53%), Puglia (+ 46%), Umbria (+ 45%), Piedmont (+ 42%) and Emilia Romagna (+ 40%). According to the expert” the situation seems more diversified, with three regions in the North, one in the Center and one in the South, however, Umbria and Puglia express rather low absolute values (153 in total) against 2,071 of the 3 Northern regions “.
In the Center, he adds, “for Lazio and Tuscany an increase of 538 hospitalized is expected, for an increase, respectively, of + 26% and 39%. However, the estimate obtained – he observes – can be considered by default since the statistical model used had to process data showing anomalies and sometimes even erratic trends, probably due to the difficult data collection process “.
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Source From: Ansa
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