Erdogan called Putin to solve the problem of Ukraine: what to expect from this visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is perceived in the world as a war criminal because of the unleashed war in Ukraine, is expected to visit Turkey, where he was invited by the President of this country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkish media write about this with reference to their sources in Ankara. The website “Segodnya” figured out why Erdogan is ready to talk with the leader of a country that does not want to hear anyone, and also – is there any chance that the Turkish leader will still be heard.

The visit of the non-handshaker

According to the Star and Yeni Şafak newspapers, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan called the Russian President and invited him to Turkey for a high-level business meeting. In this regard, Putin is expected to visit Turkey in the coming days, the publications say.

However, a little later, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov denied plans for his boss’s visit to Ankara in the near future.

“In the coming days, Putin’s visit to Ankara is not being prepared. In the coming weeks, too,” Russian media quoted Peskov as saying.

Economic interests

One way or another, Turkey is trying to play a prominent role in resolving the war in Ukraine. She has her own interests, not least economic ones. Due to hostilities and related sanctions in the aviation sector, Turkey should not expect either Ukrainian or Russian tourists this summer. As the German agency DW found out, if earlier from 5,000 to 9,000 tourists arrived at Turkish resorts daily, now in May there are no more than 500 people. And they are German citizens.

In addition to tourism, Russia and Ukraine are important partners for Turkey in the agricultural and military-technical spheres. Turkey’s total foreign trade in 2021 was $34.7 billion with Russia and $7.4 billion with Ukraine. Ukraine’s exports to Turkey are 70 percent grains and metal products, the sectors most affected by the war.

The Turkish economy is losing from the war unleashed by Putin in Ukraine

On the other hand, thanks to a favorable contact with Gazprom, according to which the price of gas is pegged to the price of oil, Turkey can now choose all the remaining unsold gas in the EU at a price below the market price – $ 800-900 per 1,000 cubic meters. Ankara has not joined any of the sanctions packages against Moscow and is not going to give up Russian oil and gas.

At the same time, Turkey can get an additional market in Russia, which is now looking for a replacement for Western goods.

Yes, Ankara condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And he covers his position by refusing to support sanctions against the Russian Federation with the status of … a mediator in the conflict.

“It is wrong to expect Turkey to impose sanctions against Russia when we play the role of an intermediary,” Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in an interview with CNN Turk.

According to Cavusoglu, it is enough that, in accordance with the Montreux Convention, Turkey closed the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles for Russian warships.

Political interests

As observers note, it is indeed easier for Putin to find a common language with Erdogan than with any other politician. The Turkish leader, like the Russian leader, constantly criticizes Western countries. For example, for the fact that Turkey has not yet been admitted to the European Union, although it received the status of a candidate member in 1999. Even on the issue of admitting new members to NATO – Finland and Sweden – Turkey defiantly showed a different position, which could not but please the Kremlin.

And thanks to the fact that Erdogan has also remained a faithful economic partner, Putin is ready to talk to him. Since the February invasion of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine, the leaders of the two countries have had several telephone conversations.

On April 26, the Turkish leader pointed out that it was important to cease fire in Ukraine and ensure the effective operation of humanitarian corridors. Erdogan called for the productive work of the delegations of Ukraine and the Russian Federation at the talks in Istanbul on March 29, as well as accepting the proposal to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The local media then discussed the birth of the so-called Istanbul Peace Treaty, which would have secured the status of a peaceful platform for the ancient capital of Turkey in modern history.

However, as we can see, negotiations between the warring countries have stalled, and Istanbul has not become a platform for a meeting between President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin.

“Turkey is really the only country in the world right now that can play the role of a peacemaker in this war. It is a country that is in NATO, a country that is not far from the conflict zone and that suffers more than many others. But we see that Russia does not react at all Erdogan can talk to Putin about anything, Putin can promise anything, but then do it his own way. Russia is fighting not for logical benefits, not for the interest of the Russian Federation itself, but for the image of Putin, who is suffering because of the lost war against the backdrop of colossal damage from it. Putin cannot admit that he lost. Therefore, the role of Erdogan cannot be particularly influential for such a person“, – said Julak Safwan, an expert on the Middle East, a journalist for the Al-Jazeera TV channel in Ukraine, to Segodnya.

Nevertheless, there remains hope that Erdogan can play a positive role in humanitarian matters. So far, all the circumstances of reaching an agreement on the evacuation of the defenders of Azovstal in Mariupol are unknown. It is possible that Ankara played a positive role here, which was approached, in addition to the government of Ukraine, by the wives of wounded soldiers from Azovstal.

Benefits from a Weak Russia

Both from the end of the war and from the weakening of Russia, Turkey can receive certain benefits as a regional leader. First of all, this concerns Syria, where Turkey has its own territorial interests.

“If Russia pulls its troops out of Syria and weakens support for Bashar al-Assad, Turkey will immediately strengthen its positions in northern Syria. Then America can return to this region – as you know, the withdrawal of Pentagon troops from there was considered a big mistake. In general, and not only for Turkey, the weakening of Russia’s position in the Middle East will affect many countries in the region. And this is a fact,” Julak Safwan concluded.

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