State of emergency in Hungary: from whom is Orban protected?

Due to the ongoing war in Ukraine, our western neighbor Hungary has decided to declare a “military emergency”. According to Prime Minister Viktor Orban, it is necessary to prevent Hungary from being drawn into the war and protect the financial security of Hungarian families, which “requires room for maneuver.” At the same time, Hungary borders on the safest region of Ukraine – the Transcarpathian region – and the length of our joint border is only 128 km. The Segodnya website has found out what is really behind the decision of Viktor Orban, who is considered a pro-Kremlin politician.

State of War

On May 24, the Hungarian Parliament, with a constitutional majority, where the basis is Viktor Orban’s Fidesz-Hungarian Civil Union party, voted an amendment to the Constitution, which allows a state of emergency to be declared on the basis of war in a neighboring state. The approved amendment to the Constitution (No. 10) states that a state of emergency may be declared due to a war, military conflict or humanitarian catastrophe in a neighboring country. Previously, Hungarian legislation did not provide for such grounds.

“Can anyone explain why it is necessary to declare a state of war despite the fact that Hungary has not received or suffered any direct military threat? I know that there is a war going on in the neighborhood, but there is no indication that we are threatened by any military threats. If he had declared an economic emergency, maybe I would have understood.“, – Tamas Gulyash, a resident of the city of Miskolc, expressed his opinion about what is happening.

Ulterior motive

According to experts, the introduction of a “state of war”, as Orban himself calls it, is a purely political move that gives his government special powers. They, in turn, will protect the authorities from transparency in decision-making and from any protests about this, and will also help to resist, among other things, EU sanctions against Russia.

“The fact is that it was on May 24 that the new government was approved. And the key “legend”, “mission” of this Orban government is to save Hungary from the war in Ukraine, its consequences, so that suddenly someone does not think of “dragging Hungary into the war in Ukraine” or makes Hungary “pay the price of the war in Ukraine”. These are quotes from the slogans of the Orban team, with which they won a shocking fourth victory in the parliamentary elections in Hungary on April 3“, – wrote Dmitry Tuzhansky, director of the Institute for Central European Strategy.

Today, if you listen to Orban, what needs to be saved is precisely from the introduction of disastrous, in his words, sanctions against Russia.

“They (EU countries – Ed.) crossed this red line. The ban on coal supplies may not affect Hungary. But they continue. You must stop here. This is the atomic bomb that they want to drop on the Hungarian economy“, Orban commented on the emergence of the sixth EU sanctions package, which Hungary must accept along with the rest of the Union.

Thus, the first reason for introducing a state of emergency may be the unwillingness of Budapest to accept the sixth package of EU sanctions against Russia, namely, to sign under the oil embargo.

The second reason may be refusal to transit through its territory weapons for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On May 12, once again, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjártó, in an interview with the Spanish newspaper El País, said that Budapest would not supply weapons to Kyiv and would not allow the transit of weapons through the territory of his country.

“We do not want the Hungarian-Ukrainian border to be a transit point for the delivery of weapons. We will not send or allow weapons to be transported through Hungary“, – said the “pacifist” Peter Szijjártó.

overblown problem

According to DW, in fact, Hungary is not the EU country that is most dependent on oil and gas from Russia. Energy supplies from the aggressor country cover 58 percent of Hungary’s annual oil consumption. In Slovakia this figure is 96 percent, in Lithuania and Finland it is about 80 percent. And these countries are ready to refuse Russian bloody oil.

But now, according to the head of the Office of the President Mikhail Podolyak, Russia has begun to more actively involve its lobbyists in order to block sanctions. Among such lobbyists, observers also name Hungarian politicians.

Putin’s friend and corruption

Hungary was the only EU country that did not condemn Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Orban does not criticize the actions of the international criminal Vladimir Putin, and only nominally condemns the war.

“Our hitherto excellent foreign policy strategy has hit a snag in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, if you can call it that, because it’s not clear who is fighting who,” Orban said in one of his few comments on the war.

According to the British service of the BBC, Orban has lucrative contracts with Russia. For example, Orban was the initiator of giving Russian firms a contract for the modernization and expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant. In 2014, the Orban government signed a contract with Moscow and received a loan of 10 billion euros from it for the reconstruction of the Paks nuclear power plant, bypassing the tender. The contract itself is classified as “secret”.

This and other moments in the life of the Orbán government give rise to claims of corruption. It is precisely because of the opacity of transactions that the European Commission refuses to pay Hungary billions from the fund to overcome the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. In addition, the EU is preparing for the first time to apply its rule of law mechanism: the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced in early April that it was taking action against Hungary in connection with the violation of the principles of the rule of law there.

Minority question

In early May, Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), accused the Hungarian prime minister of seeking to acquire parts of western Ukraine where the Hungarian national minority lives. And that is why Budapest plays along with Putin.

“Hungary, which openly declares its cooperation with Russia. Moreover, it was warned in advance by Putin that there would be an attack on our country. For some reason, she believed that she could take part of her territory. The country that behaved this way Let’s see what the consequences will be after this war for this country,” Interfax-Ukraine quoted Danilov as saying.

However, experts are in no hurry to link the introduction of a state of emergency in Hungary with the possible seizure of Ukrainian territories by this country.

“Orban introduced this provision because, according to him, the country is in danger because of the Brussels sanctions and because of the war in Ukraine. It is more of a populist and PR move. The oil embargo is most likely a matter of bargaining with the EU. Budapest is being traded. Aggravation in the west of Ukraine is also not to be expected,” Dmitry Tuzhansky said on the air of the All-Ukrainian telethon on the Ukraine 24 channel.

Around Hungary

• Vice President of the European Parliament Katarina Barley reported that the European Parliament is considering the option of making decisions on the oil embargo against Russia without the vote of Hungary.
• Hungary, on the other hand, wanted to receive money, for which it is ready to agree to an oil embargo against Russia.
• Earlier, the EU considered the option of paying compensation to Hungary if it supports the sixth package of sanctions against Russia, which provides for a ban on the import of Russian energy resources.
• The sixth package of sanctions gives Hungary and Slovakia a delay until the end of 2024 to phase out Russian oil. which is two years more than in other EU countries. But Hungary said it needed even more time to reduce its dependence on Russian oil.