Long road to the EU. What path will Ukraine have to go after the “green light” from the European Commission

On June 17, Ukraine climbed one step further towards full membership in the European Union, which currently has 27 countries. On this day, the European Commission officially recommended grant our country candidate status for EU membership. However, this is not yet a candidacy, much less a membership. Ahead of Ukraine is a few more stages and a lot of homework, without which we will not be allowed into the family of countries with strict democratic, legal and economic rules.

The Segodnya website found out what the next stages await Ukraine on its way to the European Union.

After recommendation

“The European Commission recommends that the Council of Europe, firstly, grant Ukraine a European perspective and, secondly, grant Ukraine candidate status. We have one clear message: yes, Ukraine deserves a European perspective, yes, Ukraine should be congratulated as a candidate country. It is based on the understanding that good work has been done, but important work remains to be done. The whole process is based on merit. Everything will be done according to the procedure, so progress depends entirely on Ukraine,” said Ursula von der Leyen, head of the European Commission, regarding the recommendation.

The next stage on the way to obtaining the status of a candidate member of the EU is approval by all presidents and prime ministers of the countries belonging to the European Union. They will have to express their decision on Ukraine and Moldova at the summit scheduled for June 23-24 in Brussels.

Criteria

To qualify as a candidate, a country needs to demonstrate that it is purposefully follows the so-called Copenhagen criteriawhich every applicant for EU membership must comply with.

The Copenhagen criteria include:

• observance of democratic principles;
• observance of the principles of freedom;
• respect for human rights;
• observance of the principles of the rule of law;
• existence of a competitive market economy;
• respect for and protection of the rights of minorities;
• recognition of the common rules and standards of the EU, which include commitment to the goals of political, economic and monetary union.

After the candidacy

Naturally, for Ukraine, as a country that has not yet completed all the necessary reforms to meet the concept legal and democratic state, a package of recommendations will be prepared, which our country will have to fulfill before the stage of voting in the European Parliament on the country’s accession to the EU.

A potential member of the EU must bring its laws into line with the principles of European law that have evolved throughout the history of the Union. In other words, the Copenhagen criteria must be met.

It is the failure to comply with the norms of democratic freedoms and human rights, as well as disrespect for the rights of minorities (Kurds) that has prevented Turkey from joining the EU for more than 30 years. Recall that Turkey sent an application for entry into the European Union on April 14, 1987.

Our readiness

However, Ukraine does not have 100% fulfillment of these criteria, and this suggests that there are no grounds for instant accession to the EU. Readiness is measured by the so-called Eastern Partnership Indexwhich annually calculates the Eastern Partnership Civil Society Forum based on the results of the reforms of six post-Soviet countries whose geographical position allows them to apply for EU membership – Azerbaijan, Belarus, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Overall, in the index for 2020-21, Ukraine and Moldova were leaders with a score of 0.70, followed by Georgia with 0.65, followed by Armenia with 0.63, Belarus (0.49) and Azerbaijan (0.44) . However, the index for each of the individual Copenhagen criteria shows that in some areas we are far behind other countries.

In terms of economic relations with the EU, we are third:

• Georgia and Moldova have an index of 0.71;
• Ukraine has 0.66;
• Armenia has 0.50;
• Azerbaijan has 0.47;
• Belarus has 0.45.

According to the criterion of the independence of the judiciary, Ukraine is the fourth.

And even with democratic reforms, we are not doing well.

Ukraine also has not the best performance in terms of media independence.

And in terms of the fight against corruption, we generally trail behind.

We have the highest rates in the Freedom, Security and Justice category, which is considered the main one in the EU:

prospects

Western media note that the final admission of Ukraine and Moldova to the EU may take many years. Now five states already have this status and they have been waiting for more than one year:

• Albania – since 2014,
• North Macedonia – since 2005,
• Montenegro – since 2008,
• Serbia – since 2009,
• Turkey since 1999.

“The announcement of Ukraine’s EU candidacy was accompanied by reservations, such as the need for judicial and anti-corruption reforms. Ursula von der Leyen insists that the process will take place “according to the instructions.” This could be a signal to countries that have been waiting for entry for a long time that they will not be bypassed. Diplomats in Brussels say it is important for them to give Ukrainians hope, but there is a risk that the process will drag on for years – and this hope will turn out to be false.“, – stated in the analytical article of the British edition of the BBC.

Western politicians who visited Kyiv on June 16 – French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi – also signaled that they were waiting for Ukraine in the EU.

“Today, the most important message of our meeting is that Italy wants to see Ukraine as part of the European Union. This means that it will unequivocally support Ukraine in its candidate status and further joining the EU,” – said, for example, Draghi.

Ukraine also has support from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

“We came to Kyiv with a clear message – Ukraine belongs to the European family. An important step on the full European path is the status of an EU candidate. And we will talk about this in the coming days. Germany will advocate for a positive solution,” he said. German politician in Kyiv.

“There is no alternative to our EU membership, our candidacy for EU membership. And no one offered it to us, and if they did, we would not agree“, – said the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on June 6. This means that Kyiv needs to roll up its sleeves and bring our country closer to EU standards.

Stepping stones in the EU