Kazakhstan front – President Tokayev went against Putin or both of them are fooling around

After President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, in the presence of Putin, he said that he would never recognize the LPR and the DPR. Experts immediately started talking about the “Kazakh front.” A large Central Asian republic challenges Russia. This is not the first time Tokayev has behaved obstinately. Probably too early to jump to conclusions. Tokayev may have different motives for such behavior. We decided to look into his motives.

What Tokayev said

On June 18, at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev stated that Kazakhstan does not recognize the self-proclaimed Lugansk and Donetsk republics.

“It is estimated that if the nation’s right to self-determination is realized throughout the world, then instead of the 193 states that are now members of the UN, there will be more than 500 or 600 states on Earth. Of course, it will be chaos. For this reason, we do not recognize Taiwan , neither Kosovo, nor South Ossetia, nor Abkhazia. Apparently, this principle will also be applied to quasi-state territories, which, in our opinion, are Luhansk and Donetsk”– said Tokaev.

In addition, Tokayev refused the Order of Alexander Nevsky, which Putin was going to present to him for merits in cooperation with the Russian Federation.

Oil versus coal

Note that the event was attended Russian President Vladimir Putin, who took the words of the Kazakh colleague with marked indifference. However, the reaction of the Kremlin to such an “unfriendly” statement by Tokayev was not long in coming. The next day, Russia suspended shipments of Kazakh oil from the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea coast. The official reason is mine clearing of unexploded torpedoes and mines from World War II.

According to a number of media outlets, in response to Russia’s actions, the Kazakh authorities blocked 1,700 wagons of coal on their territory, which was delivered in transit to Russia, explaining this by complying with anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the European Union.

Thus, tension between the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan is growing. In any case, this is the impression. However, the situation may be quite different than it appears at first sight.

Screen and illusion

Special Correspondent for Novaya GazetaVyacheslav Polovinko believes that Tokayev’s statements and Kazakhstan’s actions can only be a screen that gives the illusion of confrontation between Nur-Sultan and Moscow. As the journalist notes, Kazakhstan and Russia have a large number of joint programs in agriculture, education and other areas.

The exchange rate of the ruble rose sharply in the republic, which made the country very tempting for Russians to buy goods in bulk. In Kazakhstan, citizens of the Russian Federation can buy goods in circumvention of sanctions. Such cooperation with Russia causes dissatisfaction, both among the inhabitants of Kazakhstan and in the West.

“And since the appearance of the CSTO peacekeeping contingent in the country in early January, the Kazakh president has been constantly accused of “surrendering” the country to the mercy of Moscow and is a conductor of its interests”Polovinko says.

Vyacheslav Polovinko: “Tokayev’s statements are a screen.” Photo: RFE/RL

According to him, Tokayev urgently needed to get rid of the increasing toxicity of his image, which could have been done either with sharp steps, like withdrawing from the Eurasian Union and the same CSTO, or with sharp, but accurate words. Obviously, the Kazakh president chose the second option.

“Two days before SPIEF, Tokayev says on Rossiya 24 that Kazakhstan is not at all obliged to “serve forever and bow at the feet of Russia”; at the forum itself, a statement about the non-recognition of the rebellious republics is heard – but it all sounds like an agreed-upon opposition”Polovinko says.

According to the journalist, Moscow did not count on the recognition of the “DPR” and “LPR” (Kazakhstan did not even recognize Crimea), but, according to him, the Kremlin understands that Tokayev now needs to “save face.”

Political game according to the agreed scenario

The fact that the conflict between Kazakhstan and Russia is nothing more than a political game, says Segodnya and political scientist Vadim Karasev.

“Tokayev is a professional diplomat, in this case he plays like a diplomatic gambler. He is bluffing. It is important for him to show some kind of demarche in order to dull the vigilance of those who can accuse him of complicity with Russia”– Karasev tells us.

According to the expert, the situation in Kazakhstan is difficult – Tokayev’s team has not yet received the influence that “Nazarbayev’s elites” had for 30 years.

“Kazakhstan is a 3,000 km border with Russia, it is a huge black export and import of goods in circumvention of sanctions, it is the transit of Russian goods to China. Kazakhstan and Russia are too closely connected. Putin perfectly understands Tokayev’s game and plays along with him. If it were not so , Tokaev would not have been allowed to speak at the forum at all. His speech went according to the scenario agreed with the Kremlin, as well as subsequent, supposedly oil and gas wars,” Karasev summed up.

Vadim Karasev: “Tokayev’s speech went according to the scenario agreed with the Kremlin.” Photo: Facebook

By the way, on June 20, the press service of the Ministry of Industry and Infrastructure Development of Kazakhstan denied the information about the blocking of 1,700 wagons with Russian coal in the country.

“These reports are fake stuff. In fact, there are no 1,700 wagons with Russian coal on the territory of Kazakhstan. There are also no wagons with coal on the tracks of the republican railways, standing in the direction of Kazakhstan or from Kazakhstan”the ministry said.

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