Kaliningrad transit. Will the war between Russia and Lithuania start and what can Ukraine expect

A diplomatic row broke out between Moscow and Vilnius over a ban on the transit of Russian cargo through Lithuania. The Segodnya website found out the details of the conflict and tried to figure out whether it would escalate into a war and how the incident would affect Ukraine.

What happened

On June 18, Lithuania stopped the transit of Russian goods subject to EU sanctions between the Kaliningrad region and the main territory of Russia. The Lithuanian railway operator LTG Cargo received clarifications from the European Commission, according to which, even if the sanctioned goods and cargoes go from one part of Russia to another, but through the territory of the EU, their transportation should be prohibited.

Almost 50 percent of goods fell under the EU ban, including:

• building materials;
• cement;
• metals.

How Russia reacted and what they said in Vilnius

June 20 Chargé d’Affaires of Lithuania in Russia Virginija Umbrasiene was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation. The Russian side protested and demanded the immediate lifting of restrictions.

“If cargo transit is not restored in full in the near future, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests”– threatened the Russian Foreign Ministry.

However, Lithuania not only did not remove restrictions from the railway, but also extended them to road freight transit, stating that this ban was provided for by EU sanctions in connection with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Passengers and goods that are not subject to the EU sanctions regime continue to be transported through the territory of Lithuania to and from the Kaliningrad region. Lithuania has not imposed any unilateral, individual or additional restrictions on this transit. Lithuania is consistently implementing EU sanctions”– said the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry.

Threats to the inhabitants of Lithuania and sudden exercises

Russia was not convinced by such arguments, and Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Sergei Patrushev began to threaten not only the government of Lithuania, but the entire Lithuanian people.

“The consequences of Russian retaliatory measures will have a serious negative impact on the population of Lithuania”he said.

The fact that Moscow’s retaliatory measures will not be diplomatic, but in practice, was also stated by Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova. She did not say what measures would be taken, but almost simultaneously with the threats of officials, the Russian Federation suddenly began to conduct military exercises in the Kaliningrad region.

About 1,000 servicemen of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Federation and more than 100 units of military and special equipment of artillery and missile units took part in the maneuvers. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, artillerymen and missilemen performed “several hundred fire missions” using Grad and Uragan MLRS, Giacint large-caliber guns, and Msta-S, Akatsiya and Gvozdika self-propelled artillery mounts.

The exercise also included simulated missile strikes against Estonia and other Baltic states. This was stated Chancellor of the Estonian Ministry of Defense Kusti Salm. According to him, Russian helicopters also violated the air border of the Baltic countries.

Why the ban on the transit of Russian cargo caused such a resonance

Russia owns a developed fleet, which it can use in case of restrictions on transportation by rail and cars. To do this, you just need to select a number of ships that will run between Ust-Luga in the Leningrad Region and the ports of the Kaliningrad Region.

However, in a dispute with Vilnius, Moscow probably went on the principle – it was too difficult for it to conclude an agreement on the transit of goods through Lithuania to the Kaliningrad region. Negotiations continued for three years – from 2000 to 2003. Lithuania wanted to charge a fee for the transit of Russian citizens, took 72 hours to check documents, refused to transport Russian military personnel on military tickets, and introduced other restrictions.

The Kremlin was able to resolve the issue with the help of the European Union. In November 2002, at the Russia-EU summit in Brussels, an agreement was reached to simplify travel to and from Kaliningrad as much as possible. From July 1, 2003, the simplified transit document and the simplified travel document by rail came into force. In parallel, agreements were reached on the transit of goods. Then Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Rogozin reported to Vladimir Putin that negotiations with the European Union and Lithuania on the Kaliningrad problem had been completed.

Today Rogozin is the head of Roskosmos, but as the person who led the negotiations between Moscow and Brussels in 2002-2003, he could not help but comment on the incident.

“If Brussels and Vilnius are proactively and treacherously destroying the package of agreements they signed on the Kaliningrad transit, which came into force on July 1, 2003, then the EU should understand the consequences of their suicidal decision for the legitimacy of their own eastern border”– Rogozin wrote in his Telegram channel.

What responses are possible

The Kremlin, offended by Lithuania and all of Europe, is trying to put pressure on the West, brandishing weapons during exercises. But how can Moscow respond to the blockade of Kaliningrad?

1. Withdrawal of recognition of Lithuanian independence. The idea to recognize as illegitimate the secession of the Baltic republics from the USSR in Russia has been promoted since the collapse of the Union. According to some politicians, “Gorbachev’s unconstitutional State Council did not have the right to decide on revising the borders of the USSR and cutting off territories from it.” By the way, Deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Evgeny Fedorov recently introduced a bill.
2. Withdrawal from agreements with the EU on Lithuania. According to Dmitry Rogozin, at the talks with Brussels, Russia recognized the borders of the Republic of Lithuania in exchange for guarantees of uninterrupted transit of Russian citizens and Russian cargo from Kaliningrad and to Kaliningrad. Thanks to this recognition, according to him, Lithuania was able to join the EU and NATO.
3. Russia’s demand to return Klaipeda. By the decision of the Potsdam Conference following the results of World War II, the German cities of Memel and Konigsberg were transferred from Germany to the Soviet Union. Later, Stalin handed over Koenigsberg to the RSFSR, and it became Kaliningrad, and Memel gave the Lithuanian SSR, and it became Klaipeda. Russia may try to annex Klaipeda, as it did with Crimea in 2014.
4. Creation of the “Suwalki Corridor”. The most radical way, as experts have long believed, is the creation of the “Suwalki Corridor” – a land passage between Lithuania and Poland with a length of about 100 km, which could connect the territory of Belarus with the Kaliningrad region of Russia. However, this step would mean war with NATO.

Will there be a war between Russia and Lithuania

Russia is unlikely to consider such an option. Especially since US State Department spokesman Ned Price has already stated that America is ready to support Lithuania in the event of Russian military aggression.

According to Price, the US adheres to Article 5 of the North Atlantic Alliance, which states that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all. The United States also approved the economic measures taken against the aggressor country.

Political scientist Igor Petrenko I am sure that Russia will not dare to start a war with Lithuania.

“The State Department has clearly stated its position. Russia understands this and has nothing to answer. The Kremlin, out of impotence, is trying to raise rates, but no one pays attention to his statements,” the expert says.

What to expect Ukraine

According to Petrenko, Ukraine played a key role in the decision of Lithuania and the European Union.

“Ukraine has shattered the myth of the invincible Russian army. Europe has ceased to be afraid of it and is showing unity in putting pressure on the aggressor. All threats to Russia today turn out to be fatal only for it,” says Petrenko.

According to the political scientist, the conflict between Russia and Lithuania, backed by the EU and NATO, testifies to the West’s support for Ukraine.

“The more aggression Russia shows towards Ukraine and other countries, the more they will unite and counterattack. If Moscow tries to translate these threats into reality, this will only entail even more decisive measures from countries “unfriendly” to it. only L/DNR and the Taliban. She has painted herself into a corner,” Petrenko summed up.

Earlier, the Segodnya website reported that Lithuania had stopped importing electricity from Russia since May 22.

We also wrote that Lithuania was the first among the EU countries to refuse Russian gas.