China’s economic growth risks being held back by population decline

Country invests heavily in technology as a way to avoid future problems in the economy

EFE/EPA/MARK R. CRISTINO

For the first time in 62 years, China’s population has declined

In 2016, the China suspended the one-child policy, imposed in the 1980s, but the change failed to stem the demographic decline. For the first time in 62 years, China’s population has declined, and the country will cease to be the most populous in the world, being surpassed by India. The Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences predicts that the Chinese population will soon decline by about 1% a year. That is, 15 million fewer people annually. Last year’s percentage was 0.06%. The numbers indicate that there has been a decrease of 850 thousand inhabitants since the end of 2021. The result of this could be a drop in the population from 1.4 billion today to less than 800 million in 2100. Even so, the country remains among the most most populous and most powerful in the world. The heart of the problem is the economy, as the trend suggests possible limits to China’s economic rise this century. The country’s GDP grew 3%, below the government’s target, but compared to other countries, it is a great result.

According to Marcos Vinícius de Freitas, a visiting professor at the Beijing University of Foreign Affairs, China is investing heavily in technology as its workforce shrinks and the retired pool grows. “Historically, we see that there are two things that help in the process of economic growth, population and technology. So, we are looking at the population issue, which may have an impact on China, because the country is aging and runs the risk of getting old before getting rich, and this is perhaps one of the main reasons why the Chinese government is investing much on the technological issue, because that’s how you create a way of trying to contain this process”, he says.

China is the main economic partner of the European Union and Brazil. José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, doctor in demography and researcher at the IBGE, explains that having a smaller population means that China has an improvement in social and also environmental conditions. “This prospect of population decline in China opens up a very big opportunity to improve China’s social conditions and improve environmental conditions. Of course, this depends on the policies of what is done during this period. But the Chinese government announces over time it is exactly a big investment in education and a big investment in technology and in changing the production of goods and services”, he comments.

*With information from reporter Victor Moraes

Source: Jovempan

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