A year after the start of the war in Ukraine, has the Russian army learned from its failures?

Almost a year after the start of the war in Ukraine, will Russian soldiers be able to achieve their objectives? After having underestimated the response of the Ukrainians, the Russian staffs believe in it and claim to have learned from their mistakes and their failures. A speech that the Russian army held from the first weeks of fighting, the military elites publicly acknowledging that they were facing difficulties. Among them: the glaring lack of mobility, unlike a very flexible and sparse Ukrainian organization.

Those responsible for the failures ousted

Another lesson learned by the Kremlin: the essential improvement in the fight against tactical drones. Drones, which “pose an unacceptable threat to the army”, in the words of the Russian general staff. The artillery, too, has been criticized internally, supports a specialist in Russian strategic thought, explaining that “those responsible for the failure of the capture of kyiv have been ousted”. This introspection is followed very closely by Western intelligence. A military source is convinced of this: the Russian army of this month of February 2023 is no longer the same as that of a year ago. On the front, the Kremlin soldiers are more numerous and above all, the decision loops have been shortened. It remains to be seen whether this gain in agility will be decisive.

The new Russian offensive, foreseen in a few weeks in Ukraine, should be a good barometer, a pivotal moment which could tip the military advantage to one side or the other, after several months of neutralization on the battlefield.