American presidential election: younger, less extravagant… Does Ron DeSantis have a chance of victory over Donald Trump?

The announcement had been expected for several weeks. The form chosen was, on the other hand, much less so. This Wednesday, Ron DeSantis (44), formalized his candidacy for the Republican nomination for the US presidential election of 2024. But instead of opting for a classic broadcast channel, the governor of Florida chose… Twitter to end the fake suspense. Alongside the boss of the platform, the very controversial Elon Musk, Ron DeSantis delivered a declaration of candidacy deemed bland and emotionless after a long series of technical problems making it impossible to broadcast video. A failed introduction when the polls place him quite far behind his rival Donald Trump.

I’m running for president to lead our Great American Comeback. pic.twitter.com/YmkWkLaVDg

—Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) May 24, 2023

This gap, ranging from 20 to 30 points according to said polls, does not encourage optimism for the DeSantis camp. Nevertheless, with more than a year to go, it is difficult to play the game of predictions. “Let’s say it’s off to a bad start for him, but the electoral campaigns in the United States are full of twists and turns. Who could have predicted in 2016 that Donald Trump was going to win?”, recalls François Clemenceau, journalist at the Sunday newspaper and specialist in the United States. However, the timing chosen by Ron DeSantis questions. “Last November, he was tied with Trump in the polls. So why wait so long? That’s the big question,” develops François Clemenceau.

‘More educated’ than Donald Trump

But the governor of Florida has more than one trick up his sleeve. And has many advantages likely to seduce an American electorate, unenthusiastic about the possibility of a Trump-Biden remake. “He’s got a resume. His political career is meteoric. His success rates in various elections are phenomenal. And he’s not a corporate man. local politics”, enumerates François Clemenceau. Not to mention the attitude adopted by Ron DeSantis, much less provocative and outrageous than his rival Donald Trump. “He is supremely more educated. He is even more patriotic because he served in the American army,” notes the journalist. Finally, his political roots in Florida, one of the three major Republican states in the country, pleads for him.

In the Republican camp, Donald Trump’s candidacy is even far from unanimous. “It is rejected up to 60%”, indicates François Clemenceau. But thanks to the solidity of his voter base, the former tenant of the White House has a rather singular advantage. And if by chance he managed to maintain his place as number 1 in the polls, Ron DeSantis’ chances would be diminished. “The Republicans have lost so many elections since 2004 that in my opinion, they will vote for whoever can win. There is a logic of victory that surpasses personalities”, analyzes François Clemenceau. Clearly, if Donald Trump is a winner against Joe Biden, Republican voters, including the most skeptical, should resolve to slip his name into the ballot box.

“DeSantis has no base in the country”

Especially since the notoriety of the New York billionaire takes quite a bit of the upper hand over that of his Florida rival. “DeSantis has no base in the country. He even has trouble recruiting employees to build a campaign staff. He does not succeed because he is not well known enough”, maintains François Clemenceau. As for the ideological aspect, it is impossible to decide between the two applicants. “There is no difference. Yesterday (Wednesday) he made a candidacy statement that could have been Trump’s on the merits. Because today there is a base that corresponds to this segment of the right The only ones who can beat the Democrats are these ultra-conservatives,” says the journalist. Republican voters are leaving less and less space for more moderate candidates like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio in 2016.

For Ron DeSantis, the road to the White House promises to be steep. It will be even more so if the main interested party puts a spoke in its own wheels, as was the case on Wednesday. “By choosing social networks to announce his candidacy, he made, I think, a strategic error. By addressing a traditional media, he could have shown that he was able to speak and present a project to the press “, judge François Clemenceau. For Ron DeSantis, accustomed to triumphs at the local level, the hardest part begins now.