Lula slips into diplomacy, loses status as ‘savior of democracy’ and is already seen with different eyes by the West

In five months of government, the president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT), who promised to focus on foreign policy in his third term — and has traveled extensively to keep his word — has yet to see his efforts bear fruit, despite having already met with more than 30 world leaders and spent more than 20 days out of the country. The petista became the president who most traveled abroad since redemocratization, as shown by a report by Jovem Pan, and met more heads of state than members of Congress. A situation that is no longer favorable can become even more complicated. At each new meeting, Lula’s statements provoke noise and criticism of Brazilian foreign policy. The most recent was in relation to the return of the alliance between Brazil and Venezuela, in which the Brazilian leader said that the authoritarianism of Nicolas Maduro it was a “narrative matter”. One day after his statement, he heard, in Brasilia, criticism from the presidents of Uruguay, Luis Lacalle Pouand from Chile, Gabriel Boric, during the meeting of South American leaders. The experts consulted by Young pan fear the direction the country may take. When Lula won the election, in October 2022, he was seen by a good part of the world — especially Europe — as the savior of democracy in Brazil. In just a few months, he has become a political character who flirts with dictators, is already seen as an unreliable partner and runs the risk of transforming Brazil into a pariah state.

Carlo Cauti, professor of international relations at Ibmec-SP, says that the balance of Brazilian foreign policy so far “is zero”, despite shipments to Argentina, Uruguay, U.S, China, Arab Emirates, Portugal, Spain, UK It is Japan. “Absolutely nothing has changed, there have been no concrete gains from these international adventures”, he points out. On the last trip, to Hiroshima, Lula was criticized for not wanting to shake hands with Volodymyr Zelensky — was marked by the image of him shuffling papers while other leaders greeted the president of Ukraine. The ill will towards Zelensky had already motivated a protest by the Portuguese in Lisbon. Despite being a recurring subject, there is still no sign that the free trade agreement with the European Union will, in fact, be signed. During the president’s visit to China, no major trade agreement was reached, with the exception of removing restrictions on the purchase of Brazilian meat from slaughterhouses that were embargoed until Lula’s arrival in the country. Regarding the PT’s brief visit to the United States and his meeting with the president Joe Biden, it was even worse. “Brazil took a few million dollars that they gave to the Amazon Fund, which are, in fact, crumbs for the American public budget and crumbs also for the Amazon Fund, which has billions of dollars invested by Norway and Germany”, he points out. Cauti.

For the specialist, visiting other countries and meeting leaders is “always good”, especially after the years of restrictions due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, he points out that this excess of travel is a way for Lula to try to balance internal problems, because he does not have a majority in Congress. “He is, in fact, fleeing abroad to avoid facing Brazilian problems. So much so that he has more meetings with international leaders than with representatives of the Senate Chamber here in Brazil ”, concludes Cauti. Political scientist Leandro Consentino points out that, in these first months of government, it is positive for Brazil to return to the international community. But, on the other hand, there are negative points, especially in the environmental sphere. It is worth remembering that recently there was a dismantling of the Ministry of the Environment, commanded by Marina Silva. In five months, Lula’s foreign policy is ambiguous and has not said what it came to. “We still need to leave an important mark, above all because it seems that current foreign policy is done with the ‘eyes in the rearview mirror’, looking backwards, not to the future.”

South American leaders gather in Brasilia for the region’s summit │EFE/André Borges

The political scientist also claims that President Lula’s wrong positions could harm the country because they generate distrust of investors and international powers who still don’t know “which whistle Brazil blows”. “It signals a lack of commitment, for example, with democracies, something that the government has always made a point of taking a different position from the previous leader”, observes Consentino. Cauti warns that Lula’s stumbles may go beyond distrust of international partners. There is a risk of creating a fear that Brazil may be moving in the direction of Venezuelaization, whether in economics or politics. “We went from a country with a criticized democracy and a controversial leader, who was the target of international criticism, to a country that has a new president, who in the beginning was extolled by the international media as the savior of democracy in Brazil, but who now has become a political character who is flirting with dictators”, says the professor. “Many people in Europe are questioning whether, in fact, the real risk of Brazil becoming a dictatorship came from Bolsonaro. Because the current situation in the country means that it is slowly becoming a pariah state.”

Rui Tavares Maluf, political scientist, highlights President Lula’s speech this week about the dictatorship in Venezuela. For him, “every speech by the president is from a political activist, not from a head of state”. A conduct, especially in recent days, that goes against Lula’s own discourse in defense of democracy during the 2022 elections. Maluf points out that it is healthy for Brazil to have diplomatic relations with Venezuela or any country in the world — agree with the policy neighbor or not. “However, exalting Maduro and saying that dictatorship is a matter of narrative is something shameful, there is no denying that Venezuela is authoritarian.” The expert also criticizes the Brazilian position of wanting to take the lead in peace negotiations to show that Brazil is a pacifist country. In the context of the war between Russia and Ukraine, it is not possible “to pose as a good guy”, says Maluf. Despite the international community’s interest in relating to Brazil, goodwill has a duration and an expiration date. If things continue as they are today, it is likely that countries will not continue with a positive outlook. “Brazilian democracy itself can be weakened by the president’s conduct in the international context.”