Who benefited in the world from Erdogan’s victory?

Today (June 3 – Ed.) Erdogan’s inauguration took place, and this is an occasion to recall some of the speculation that I have recently seen in the media (mainly Western). Based on the candidates’ pre-election rhetoric, for some reason they believed that Erdogan’s re-election was a huge “plus” for Putin. Although in fact we all understand that the only one for whom this is a plus is Erdogan himself. All the rest will receive “pros” according to the situation.

It is clear that before the second round of elections, both candidates must mobilize voters as much as possible. This is done at the expense of “contrast” – opposing oneself to the opponent. If one makes “pro-Western” statements, relying on the “pro-Western” electorate, then the second will make “anti-Western” statements to mobilize the “anti-Western” electorate. It’s just the alphabet of political technologies.

Should this be taken into account? Maybe, but not much. Erdogan remains Erdogan. What does this mean for us in practice?

If we talk about “partnership with Putin”, then it will continue, but now the conditions are developing in such a way that it is Putin who will be the “junior partner” in these relations. Why? For the satrish partner is the one who sets the terms of the partnership. And now it is not Putin who sets the conditions, but he cannot refuse partnership, because for him Turkey is another “gate” to Europe. Therefore, there will be “free” gas, and other financial projects, which Erdogan will not refuse, assuring publicly of the “eternal partnership”, which, however, will cost the Kremlin more and more.

Against this background, there will be many statements from Erdogan about the negotiations. Now everyone is talking about these “negotiations” – from the Pope to the leaders of African states, but for Erdogan this issue is more important. He claims to be a “mediator”. This status is very beneficial for him, because it allows him to push through the “grain agreement”, as well as to hide behind “mediation”, so as not to interrupt economic relations with Russia, but also not to break with the “West”. But the status needs to be confirmed, so Erdogan will regularly say something about “negotiations”, but not specifically, and without much worry that these “negotiations” will not take place. The main thing here is the process itself.

Erdogan will also bargain a lot with the “West”, bargaining for something for himself. “Selling” literally everything. Including allowing Sweden to join NATO. This permission, in the end, will be, but only after preferences for Turkey from the United States.

Erdogan will introduce sanctions against Russia only under strong pressure from the “West”, when the issue is raised point-blank, but so far this is not visible, because the “West” does not want to escalate with important Turkey, and this provides a noticeable temporary “backlash”, which Erdogan will make the most of it.

And he will continue military-technical cooperation with Ukraine. As part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Turkish weapons and equipment have long been not only about bayraktors. It is worth remembering that at a time when most European states were afraid to sell even the simplest weapons to Ukraine, this was not a problem for Turkey. They will continue to sell weapons to Ukraine. Often one that no one else sells. And this is also a fact.

So who benefited in the world from Erdogan’s victory? Perhaps, first of all, Erdogan himself.