can new sanctions against Belarus be effective?

INTERVIEW

Faced with Belarus, Europe wants to crack down. On Wednesday, the President of the European Commission Ursula Von der Leyen assured that the European Union would extend its sanctions against the country, accused of orchestrating an influx of migrants at the borders of Europe, with numerous attempts to cross into Poland. But are international sanctions effective in this kind of diplomatic crisis? Invited on Saturday from Europe 1, Sylvie Matelly, deputy director at Iris, provided some answers.

The real effectiveness of these sanctions is “a question that has been asked for decades without there really being an agreement between all the experts”, explains the researcher. “Some consider that sooner or later, it ends up working and that when you have the will to overthrow a regime, by dint of sanctioning it and stifling its economy, you will achieve your ends”, she explains, the latter often based on the example of South Africa and the end of Apartheid. But “others explain that there are perhaps many other phenomena which have led to the government bending other than the only sanctions”.

“It stimulates a certain nationalism”

But more often, says Sylvie Matelly, these sanctions, “especially before they are targeted”, are ineffective, even have “a counterproductive effect”, often strengthening the links between the populations and the regime. square. These sanctions can be “perceived by the population as interference, like the will to go against, not only the government, but against the country”, indicates the guest of Europe 1. “It stimulates a certain nationalism, rallying around the flag. And that reduces the effectiveness of sanctions. “

Another effect: “it can strengthen alliances”. “We have seen that China has tended to strengthen its relationship with Iran from the moment we instituted sanctions against Iran, which needed to export its oil,” continues Sylvie Matelly. “So there are these two effects that can effectively reduce the effectiveness of sanctions.”

“An admission of weakness”

More generally, sanctions represent “a bit of an easy way out when you don’t want to go to conflict, but you still want to mark the occasion”, remarks the deputy director at Iris, seeing “an admission. of weakness “which can be” extremely counterproductive for the entities which sanction “and which can” strengthen the entities which are sanctioned “. Moreover, these sanctions can only have a real impact if they are applied by all the economic partners of the State sanctioned. However, “in a world that has become global, where trade flows are exchanged and navigate the entire planet, it is extremely easy for a sanctioned country to obtain goods to which it does not have access by others. channels than the initial channels, ”says Sylvie Matelly.

For the sanctions to be effective, “we must have things to negotiate”, specifies the specialist. “We see that the sanctions are effective when they are first imposed, with the idea of ​​giving ourselves room for maneuver, the means to go and negotiate a relaxation of sanctions, for example. It is something that Barack Obama practiced very clearly during his two terms, with a first term in which he sanctioned at all costs and a second term in which he went to negotiate with the Burmese, with the Iranians. And gradually, he lifted the sanctions. ” In these specific cases, “we saw sanctions that seemed to work, but not so much because of the sanctions, but because at one point they drove the parties around the table.”

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