Argentina: Legislative shift to the right should be an obstacle to the end of Alberto Fernández’s term

Legislative elections should confirm dissatisfaction with the current government and mark the beginning of a new political movement in the country

EFE / Juan Ignacio RoncoroniAlberto Fernández was elected president of Argentina in 2019 after defeating Maurício Macri

A Argentina held this Sunday, 14, its legislative elections, when 24 members of the Senate and 127 members of the Chamber of Deputies will be chosen for four-year terms. Among specialists, the forecast is that the election will repeat the result of the previous September, imposing a defeat on the government of Alberto Fernandez and making room for the rise of right-wing and far-right candidates, such as the populist liberal Javier Milei, inspired by the president Jair Bolsonaro. But what actually caused Argentines’ growing dissatisfaction with the current government? Associate Professor of International Policy at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), Paulo Velasco, explains that the inability of President Alberto Fernández to ease the symptoms of the economic crisis in his two-year term is among the main factors of discontent among Argentines with the Executive Branch. “The population is disappointed that more than once a president has been elected promising different solutions to the crisis and, over time, that doesn’t happen.”

Regiane Nitsch Bressan, professor of International Relations at the Federal University of São Paulo and coordinator of the Regionalism Observatory, recalls that the economic crisis has been punishing the Argentine people for two decades. “If we analyze the domestic scenario, it is evident that Argentina’s economic difficulties, which have been going on for 20 years, are not over. We cannot forget that Argentina has been facing the ‘corralito’ for 20 years [interrupção da retirada de depósitos em contas correntes e poupanças] and currency devaluation. She never recovered”, points out the professor.

In addition, corruption scandals and the challenges of combating pandemic helped to further erode the Peronist’s management. “The other variable is the fact that government components have suffered a very wide wear and tear from the population because of some attitudes that go against what seemed to be a commitment to fighting corruption and what also seemed to be a commitment to fighting the pandemic. These are variables that were much explored by the press, including by sectors of opposition to the government, which also ended up impacting the government’s image in society,” says Velasco. In February 2021, then-Health Minister Ginés González García resigned from his post after the scandal over a “fight-line” vaccine scheme by his relatives and friends was denounced by the press. Amid controversy in Health, the restrictive measures also bothered the population, who feared that the country’s economy would sink even further.

This dissatisfaction culminated in a series of protests throughout 2021, with protesters taking to the streets against unemployment and in defense of greater government aid to the population. This feeling of revolt translated into a fiasco in the legislative primaries, with the governing coalition conquering only six of the 24 electoral districts, a situation that led to the resignation of five ministers, a secretary and two heads of state bodies and highlighted the loss of support for Alberto Fernandez. “He is seeing his party lose seats, lose power. So what I’m predicting is that with these changes, it’s very easy to imagine a dismantling, not of the party itself, but of the party’s strength within Congress”, points out Regiane.

What to expect from legislative elections?

In this scenario of uncertainty, crisis and lack of support, specialists foresee the rise of the Argentine right wing, which represents dissatisfaction with the policy and the resumption of more conservative values, in an almost irreversible process. For Professor Paulo Velasco, it is already certain that there will be a reduction in the number of seats in the “Frente de Todos” government coalition and a growth of “Together for Change”, led by the centre-right former president Maurice Macri. The latest national survey of Management & Fit, published by the local newspaper Clarion, points out that “Together for Change” has 33.4% of voting intentions. The government political group, “Frente de Todos”, appears in second place, with 23.2%.

The yaw to the right represents a phenomenon already known in Latin America: the alternation of powers. “Whenever the country is doing poorly from an economic point of view, this tends to favor the advancement of the most prominent opposition groups. So if the right is in power and the country is doing poorly, the left tends to win. And vice versa”, explains the UERJ professor. “The group linked to Macri has become a very expressive political force, escaping a little from the traditional division between the two great groups, União Cívica Radical and Peronism. Here comes the ‘Together for Change’ with a more representative front, including some members of radicalism, trying to stand up to the current government”, says Velasco.

In addition to the growth of the centre-right, legislative elections must emphasize the arrival of an extreme right in Argentina. The phenomenon is a novelty in the country, but the conservative wave is already an old acquaintance of developed countries, such as the USA and European nations, and arrived in Latin America in recent years, after presidential changes. Regiane Bressan cites as an example the influence of President Jair Bolsonaro in the Argentine democratic process by defending common themes of other rightists. “Bolsonaro’s speeches arrive clearly in Argentina and there is a portion of the population that is dissatisfied with the policy and that ends up identifying with this type of speech. We cannot forget that Milei, candidate for deputy for Buenos Aires, also defends the use of weapons. He also has the population’s armament as a campaign prerogative. It’s another symbol that he uses, just as Bolsonaro used throughout the electoral process”, he adds.

2023 Elections: reflections and trends

A novelty in the legislative election, Javier Milei should be an important player in the 2023 presidential elections. Considered a populist phenomenon linked to the extreme right, the candidate shows himself as an alternative to the population’s frustrations with the traditional politicians who commanded the country in the last few decades — of crisis — and brings liberalism and conservatism back to the center of the country’s electoral dispute. “Argentina seems to succumb to Milei’s power of seduction, who is a guy who speaks very well, who mobilizes the masses very well and who somehow says what a portion of the population wants to hear. Even with regard to the more conservative agenda”, completes Velasco. With this rise of the far right and center right, the prospects are for significant changes in the coming years. “Sand confirming the expectations of a loss of seats and of a parliamentary minority in the two Houses, Fernández will practically remain adrift in the remaining two years of government, without managing to pass any type of sharper reform”, assesses the professor.

Difficulties in approving reforms should further highlight the mismatch between the president and his deputy, Cristina Kirchner, who are from different wings within Peronism. “ANDFaced with the difficulties they are facing, it is easy to imagine that they suddenly have very different views of what is being done and what should be done from now on. So we already notice this type of noise”, says Velasco. For Bressan, at the current pace, the noises plaguing the Fernández-Kirchner government are evident, a situation that could worsen in coming years and facilitate a victory for the right. “Argentina will go through difficult years, because, with lesser governability, Alberto Fernández will have to make more arrangements and will have difficulty implementing measures, following up with plans for these two final years of government”, analyzes the professor. “Unless the government manages to dribble this defeat that it must have in the legislative elections, with the victory of the ultra-conservative caucus, and manages to dribble and recover the economy, it is very easy to imagine the victory of a far-right candidate in the 2023 elections.”

Source From: Jovempan

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