Covid, England risks up to 75 thousand deaths in 5 months

Omicron could cause “worst case scenario” up to 75,000 deaths in England by the end of April if no new restrictions are adopted, in addition to the Plan B just started. This is underlined by new data from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine which indicate a forecast between 25,000 and 75,000 victims in the next 5 months. In the most optimistic scenario – writes the Guardian reporting the data – “a wave is expected that could lead to over 2,000 hospitalizations per day and 24,700 deaths from December to April 30, 2022. In the worst case, up to 74,800 deaths. The team therefore stresses the need of new squeezes.

The UK registers a record increase in confirmed cases of Omicron variant: 633 in 24 hours, about 50% more than the previous day. This was announced by the national health security agency – cited by the Guardian – which now brings the total number of infections of the new variant to 1,898. The vast majority of those infected with Omicron are in England, with 618 new cases out of a total of 1,575. In Scotland there are 11 (121 total), in Wales 2 (15) and Northern Ireland 2 (5).

Experts from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who are also part of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (SPI-M) and the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), used experimental data to examine the potential transmissibility of Omicron and the impact on the country in view of the new year.

Even in the most optimistic scenario (Omicron’s low immune escape from vaccines and high efficacy of boosters), a wave of infections is expected – reports the Guardian – that could lead to a total of 175,000 hospital admissions and 24,700 deaths between December 1st. this year and the end of April 2022. This is if no further control measures are implemented beyond the current Plan B introduced by the government in England: according to the team wearing the mask, working from home and third doses may in fact not be enough.

The most pessimistic scenario examined by the experts (high immune escape from vaccines and less efficacy of boosters) foresees a wave of infections that risks leading to a peak in hospital admissions about double that recorded in January 2021, without further measures control. And, according to the study, it could cause 492,000 hospital admissions and 74,800 deaths by next April.

Despite the uncertainties about Omicron “these early projections help guide our understanding of potential futures in a rapidly changing situation,” remarked Rosanna Barnard, who co-directed the research, pointing out that “our worst case scenario suggests that we may having to endure stricter restrictions to ensure that the NHS is not overwhelmed: it is imperative that decision makers consider the wider social impact of these measures, not just epidemiology. “


Source From: Ansa

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