30 UAH is not the limit? What will happen to the dollar after Russia recognizes “LDNR”

After Russia recognized the independence of the “LDNR” pseudo-republics, the hryvnia fell sharply on the interbank market, followed by Russian stocks and the ruble.

“Today” talked with financial analyst and economist Alexey Luponosov and found out what could happen to the dollar in Ukraine against the backdrop of Putin’s decision.

According to the expert, in addition to the recognition of fake “states” by the Kremlin, the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine is affected by the fact that the country has financial obligations to global lending institutions.

“The latest events coincided with the fact that February is the shortest month and reserves are already accumulating in order to fulfill our obligations and we pay all this in dollars,” says Luponosov.

The second point that can seriously change the course is panicwhich can be traced both among the population, which is frightened by the possibility of a full-scale war after Russia’s recognition of the “LPR”, and among investors.

It is panic that pushes the course up.the financial analyst says and notes that it is very difficult to predict how much the dollar will rise against the background of such force majeure circumstances.

According to the economist, based on the state of the Ukrainian economy, the dollar should be at the level of 27 hryvnia/dollar and not should not exceed 28 UAH.

In the event that all obligations to creditors fall on Ukraine in the current situation without any easing and the panic against the background of Putin’s decision regarding the “LDNR” does not stop, the dollar can easily step beyond the mark of 29 hryvnia and even above 30 hryvnia.

“Firstly, we are preparing to pay the next tranches, and secondly, for some reason force majeure is not recognized in Ukraine, no one forgives anything against Ukraine, which is why the dollar is growing,” Luponosov said.

What can help lower the rate?

According to the expert, it would be logical for Western partners to free Ukraine during this difficult period from part of the payments or at least percent.

This would be not only a beautiful step on the part of partners, but also a real help to Ukraine.

“Then everything depends on the West, if it admits that such a force majeure has happened in Ukraine and we will be released for a while, at least from paying interest, then there will be nothing terrible,” the analyst says.

Also an effective method during a panic would be to temporarily stop the sale of securities on the stock exchange or take it under control.

What to do with the dollar?

If you already have dollars, then the expert recommends not to change them for hryvnia, and if you did not have time to buy the currency, then it is definitely too late to do it.

In the current situation, the economist says, you will lose anyway if you buy a dollar at such a high price.

Segodnya also wrote what would happen to the Russian economy after the recognition of the quasi-republics and told what sanctions against Russia the European Union was preparing.