Prepare for the worst? What will happen to the dollar in Ukraine after the war

The war turned the life of Ukrainians upside down and stopped a huge number of economic and financial processes in the country. Were also frozen trading on the Interbank.

The National Bank decided to set the dollar at the level at which it was on February 24 (UAH 29.25)on the day of the attack of Russian troops on Ukrainian cities.

Everyone is looking forward to the end of the war and victory, but the opening of trading on the Interbank market is awaited with horror, because no one knows how much the hryvnia can devalue.

Segodnya talked to experts and tells us what will happen to the course after the war and what it should be like now.

Dollar exchange rate today

Everyone understands that real economic indicators have gone far beyond 29 UAH and the frozen rate of the National Bank does not reflect the real situation.

Economist Alexey Kushch believes that in the current situation the dollar would correspond to 34-35 UAHas in the cash (black) market.

“This more or less reflects reality. Yes, we are now experiencing a colossal loss of exports, we cannot export our raw materials, since all ports are closed, but at the same time, our imports have greatly reduced, we also do not buy a large amount of energy,” explains expert.

President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center Alexander Okhrimenko also advises to pay attention to the black market and notes that in the current situation, the real exchange rate is approximately at 34 hryvnia.

“I would like to draw your attention to the fact that there were moments when the rate on the black market reached 40, then it was 35, and now it is already 34 hryvnia, that is, even such a revaluation is taking place,” the analyst says.

What will happen after the war?

Alexander Okhrimenko reassures that it is shocking 100 UAH the rate will not riseaccording to some experts and will fluctuate around 30 hryvnia.

According to the expert, this is not a catastrophic devaluation, given that there is a war going on in the country and this is a regularity.

And economist Aleksey Kushch emphasizes that what the dollar exchange rate will be like depends on what kind of post-war economic format we will have.

“It is also important how long we will have access to our southern ports and whether we will be able to send cargo from there,” the expert notes.

If Ukraine has such an opportunity, then the hryvnia should not fall below 34-35 hryvniaand as financial assistance and recovery are allocated to our country, the national currency may begin to strengthen.

Is it worth buying a dollar on the black market?

In connection with the war, the sale of cash in Ukraine is prohibited, with the exception of those areas that are under the threat of occupation.

However, this does not stop those who want to buy dollars and try to cash in on their resale.

We have already said that experts do not recommend taking risks, since the rate will still be overpriced, and there is also a high probability that you will be deceived.

Segodnya also wrote what cash restrictions the NBU introduced and how the rules for issuing loans have changed.