Course, fuel and prices: what to expect for Ukrainians in July

The full-scale war of Russia against Ukraine continues for the fifth month. During this time, the prices of all goods have risen. But there is good news, it seems that the fuel market has slowly begun to recover. Despite the occupation of the southern regions, fresh vegetables began to appear on the markets.

The Segodnya website, together with experts, figured out what to expect for Ukrainians in July.

Almost unchanged on the fuel front

Over the past one and a half to two weeks, the situation at gas stations in Ukraine has changed in different directions. In the western regions, they say that at times you can fill up with almost no queues. There is more fuel in the central regions, but queues remain.

But it should be noted that if at the beginning of the month it was necessary to stand in line for gasoline for about two hours, now you can fill the tank, standing from 10-20 minutes to an hour – as lucky. In addition, the prices at gas stations, which sold fuel above the upper limit of the market, decreased.

In early June, those who did not want to stand in lines could fill up the 95th gasoline at UAH 65 per liter, but now the price has dropped to UAH 56-58 per liter at such gas stations.

Prices for liquefied gas also began to decline. Over the last week of June, propane-butane has fallen in price by 1-2 hryvnia per liter. At some gas stations, autogas is already being sold at UAH 36 per liter.

All these factors indicate that the market is gradually stabilizing and in July the situation with gasoline should improve. Moreover, in the first days of July, fuel prices may even drop by 1-2 UAH per liter. But experts advise not to relax.

“The situation will remain quite shaky. Firstly, fuel shortages are growing in Europe and the world due to the lack of processing capacities and the rejection of Russian energy resources. Secondly, due to the start of harvesting, pressure on transport infrastructure will increase. Thirdly “, the war carries with it the risk of new blows to the industry infrastructure. Tensions will persist until October, until the high season of consumption ends,” Sergey Kuyun, director of the A-95 Consulting Group, commented to Segodnya.

The course may be released.

Experts say that the US dollar exchange rate this summer should not change too much in either direction. Summer is a traditional period of business calm, when the demand for currency decreases. And this year, the demand for currency, which in previous years went on vacation abroad, is also declining.

In favor of the hryvnia is the fact that Western countries have finally increased funding for the Ukrainian budget. And although so far there is no talk of $5 billion a month, the amount of funding has tripled compared to May.

“In June, the budget has already received UAH 87.5 billion of foreign aid. This is more than three times more than a month ago. And these are data when the month has not yet ended. Most likely, June will be the first month of the war, when foreign aid from partners is finally something will contribute more to the budget than tax revenues,” says people’s deputy Yaroslav Zheleznyak.

Experts say that most likely, in the near future, the triple exchange rate will still be maintained – the fixed rate of the NBU, at which foreign exchange earnings are sold, the card rate for paying with plastic abroad, and the real exchange rate, which is 20% higher than the official one. But in the near future, the National Bank may begin to bring all these three indicators closer together.

“The latest news indicates that it’s time to say goodbye to the multiple exchange rate and move on to flexible exchange rate formation. Assistance from the West is growing, and in the plans agreed by partners for the next months, there are several tens of billions of dollars more. Parliament adopted a law on the return of VAT on imports and imported duties on goods mass-produced in Ukraine. Thus, it is advisable to gradually release the official exchange rate, stop the practice of multiple exchange rates and cancel the list of critical imports,” said Oleg Hetman, coordinator of the expert groups of the Economic Expert Platform.

Such initiatives may lead to a slight decrease in the commercial exchange rate and an increase in the official exchange rate of the NBU.

Food prices start to drop

July is the first month of a significant decline in prices for new crop vegetables. And even despite the occupation of the southern regions, the Ukrainians will be with vegetables – they are already selling cucumbers grown in the central regions, and in a few weeks, open-ground tomatoes from controlled territories will come to the market.

As explained by EastFruit, other seasonal crops will enter the active phase of the season in the near future, so a gradual increase in the supply of early borscht vegetables and potatoes on the market is expected. At the same time, due to the impossibility of consumer access to new crop products from the occupied southern regions of Ukraine, prices for beets, onions and carrots of the old crop remain high.

And although seasonal products began to get cheaper, this year the prices for vegetables in Ukraine will be on average 15% higherthan a year earlier. This forecast was voiced by the analyst of the Ukrainian club of agrarian business Svetlana Lytvyn.

Earlier we wrote about how to properly prepare for the heating season. Read more about how to save money during a financial storm here.