“Surprise” awaiting Ukrainians? What will happen to the dollar exchange rate in December

In the second half of November, the hryvnia is clearly “heavier”. On the hike to UAH 26 per dollar, a powerful wave of hryvnia sales began, raising the rate to 27. However, this jump still leaves the rate within the descending trading range formed in November last year.

The head of EXANTE Ukraine Vladimir Pozniy told about this “Today”.

“Persistent dollar growth, slippage in global stocks and general risk appetite were superimposed on seasonal factors and an annual shake-up of strategies from global managers. Also, one cannot ignore the geopolitics, which has clearly aggravated in recent days,” says Vladimir Pozny.

He notes that the consolidation of the rate above UAH 27, approximately in the area of ​​27.10, will signal a global reversal of the trend in the hryvnia and there are risks to launch an even stronger sale in it.

“This requires such factors as a further tightening of the rhetoric of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the growth of the dollar, as well as a rollback in prices for raw materials and agricultural products. In this case, a jump in the rate to 28 by the end of the year is not ruled out,” said the head of EXANTE.

However, a more likely scenario, according to Vladimir Pozny, will be the depletion of the dollar’s growth momentum against the hryvnia near 27 and a rollback to 26.50 by the end of the year, with a tendency towards gradual strengthening in 2022.

How the dollar will hit loans

As the founder of the Performance Management company Sergey Saroyan told Segodnya, further growth in the cost of loans is to be expected. Back in October, inflation was 10.9%, but the situation is getting worse.

The dollar has already begun to strengthen on these expectations, which is very bad: most of the trade and debt obligations are denominated in dollars, so that little will not seem to the whole world.

According to him, the period of relatively low NBU rates may end soon and at the same time loans will rise in price.

According to the President of the Ukrainian Analytical Center, Oleksandr Okhrimenko, believes that hryvnia deposits are more profitable than foreign currency stash, therefore, he proposes to gradually diversify savings, convert some of them into foreign currency.