S&P reviews the growth estimates of the world GDP as the effect of the duties and turbulence they are causing. It is “a shock to the system, with impacts concentrated on trust and price formation” and from which the real economy “will certainly be influenced” even if “it remains to be understood to what extent”.
World growth is cut by 2025 of 0.3%, at 2.7%, for 2026 of 0.4%, at 2.6%, and for 2027 of 0.1%to 3.3%. Cut of 0.5%, at 1.5%, the Use GDP in 2025, by 0.1%, to 0.8%, that of the Eurozone, of 0.1%, at 0.5%, that of Italy.
“The increase in the use of the import to import, the retaliation by the commercial partners, the ongoing concessions and the consequent turbulence of the markets represent a shock to the system, with impacts concentrated on trust and on the formation of prices. The real economy will surely be influenced by it, but remains to be understood to what extent”, says the rating agency that has cut the growth estimates of many countries in the next three years. “The risks for the basic scenario – continues S&P – remain strongly oriented downwards due to the possibility that the impact of the tariff shock on the real economy is wider than expected. Even the long -term configuration of the global economy, including the role of the United States within it, appears more uncertain today”. Among the most affected countries there are the United States themselves, where the rating agency has revised the inflation estimates upwards, even if the expected “significant slowdown” of the economy should not translate, at least “at the moment”, into “a recession”. S&P reduced US growth to 1.7% (-0.2%) in 2026 and 2.1% (-0.1%) in 2027 and that of the Eurozone at 1.2% (-0.2%) in 2026 and 1.4% (-0.1%) in 2027. Italy, after the +0.5% expected this year, will grow by 0.8% in 2026 (-0.2%) and of the 0.9% in 2027 (-0.1%). The impact on China in the three-year period will be heavy, which will grow by 3.5% this year (-0.6%), 3% next year (-0.8%) and 4.3% in 2027 (-0.1%).
Ansa agency ECB: ‘Exceptional uncertainty, remarkable risks on GDP – News – Ansa.it The duties and tensions on the markets brake consumers (ANSA)
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