The speed of the pond, like the oil market, no longer believes in the blocking of Iran, a spill of Ormus. Bookmakers showed a significant decrease in the likelihood of such an event – it decreased from 51.5% to 3% less than two days.
This is evidenced by data on the Polymarket platform Cryptobetting. The likelihood that Iran will fulfill its threat to block the strait by July has fallen against the background of applications for a possible truce between Iran and Israel.
Until June 23, Iran’s chances of fulfilling this threat are growing steadily, because the military confrontation with Israel exacerbated. And the US decision to strike at one of the nuclear facilities of Iran increased the probability of 51.5%.
After the States joined Israeli in the attack on nuclear facilities, Iran’s parliament approved the blocking of the Ormuz Strait navigation channel. This step instantly raised world oil prices.
Nevertheless, applications for a possible ceasefire on June 24 led to a sharp voltage drop. Yes, US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed with the “complete” ceasefire – this means that the 12 -day conflict of the two countries of the Middle East could be stopped. Israel confirmed such intentions, but a little later said that Iran had launched the missiles again.
The most volumetric speed (more than 119.9 thousand shares) is made from the absence of a blockade. Such actions are traded on the platform for 97 cents. At the same time, in order to put one “for” blocking costs 3.9 cents.
Strait and Oil Strait: why is it important
A strait is a sea corridor between Iran and Oman. He connects the Persian and Oman bay, and also provides Iran and some neighboring countries enter the Indian Ocean.
The strait is actively used by such large oil producers as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Iran. It passes about 17-18 million barrels per day (about 20% of the world).
There is also a large number of liquefied natural gas, especially from Qatar, one of the world’s largest LNG exporters. In the narrowest place, the Strait of Ormuz has only 33 kilometers of width (from which the imposed path is 3.7 kilometers).
According to OBOZ.ua, world oil prices were removed on June 24. Thus, investors responded to a decrease in the chances of overlapping the Ormus Strait.
Source: Obozrevatel
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