The actions of retail in e-commerce closed down this Thursday (8), even with higher-than-expected retail data released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
The papers of Magazine Luiza 🇧🇷MGLU3) retreated 3.4%, worth R$ 2.84. the falls of Via 🇧🇷VIIA3) and Americans 🇧🇷AMER3) were even higher, at 4.33% and 4.23%, respectively.
The movement goes against the market’s reception of retail sales volume data, which rose 0.4% in October compared to the previous month and 2.7% compared to October 2021.
The annual base result was above the median of projections, of 2.5%.
Fernando Ferrer, analyst at Empiricusexplains that the numbers released by the IBGE today had no effect on stocks because it is news that “was born old”.
Ferrer recalls that the market seeks to find the freshest news to understand the future behavior of assets.
An example of this is data from the sexta-feira Negra, which took place in November. Data from Neotrust indicate that, on the 25th, Brazilian virtual retailers had a 28% drop in revenue compared to the same period last year.
“Looking ahead, which is what the market is wanting to know, the sentiment is still quite negative, either because of the loss of real income for consumers, or because of very high interest rates or rising default rates”, says Ferrer.
The analyst also points out that all these factors did not show a peak. On the contrary: they are accelerating.
“Going forward, I think they will get worse”, he comments.
Ferrer also mentions the pressure that Transition PECapproved yesterday in the Senateis causing on the market.
The proposal to extend the spending ceiling by R$145 billion for a period of two years, in addition to removing up to R$23 billion in extraordinary revenues from the fiscal anchor, will now be analyzed by the Chamber of Deputies🇧🇷
Adding it all up, the value could reach up to R$ 168 billion, less than the R$ 200 billion that the market came to price. Still, caution prevails.
Apolo Duarte, partner and head of the equities desk at AVG Capitalevaluates that positive retail data are indifferent when the sector is hurt and the expectation for the future is negative, with the possibility of further increases in interest rates.
“What we see, in my view, is more a continuity of the scenario that remains complicated with the hole in the spending ceiling”, he says.
Source: Moneytimes
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