Markets pause to recover after Super Week; Is there a truce there?

You markets had intense days at the turn of the month. No time to breathe, investors followed the decisions of no less than four major central banks – including the Brazilian one – and the return to work in Brasilia.

But the first full week of February promises to be as intense as the days that marked the end of last month and the beginning of this one, especially in Brazil. While abroad the economic calendar loses strength; here is full of relevant disclosures.

That goes for the season as well. resultswith emphasis on the “banks” Itaú and Bradesco, as well as for indicators and events. data of IBGE about inflation (IPCA) and activity (retail It is services), in addition to the minutes of the meeting of the Copomfill the agenda over the next few days.

Markets live duels

However, none of this should undo the duel in the markets. In New Yorkinvestors challenge the tough (“hawkish”) tone of the president of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powellas well as the Robust labor market data us U.S (payroll) and maintain their bets on interest rate cuts later this year.

already in B3, arm wrestling takes place between foreigners and residents. On the one hand, the recurrent statements made by the president Lula about goals of inflationautonomy of central bank and high level of Selic rate sound like music to the ears of the more pessimistic locals.

In addition, the absence of news about a new anchor Supervisor drives this vision. On the other hand, the “gringos” dance to the rhythm of the sound (noises) coming from Brasilia It is go shopping at B3, leading the Ibovespa. As a matter of fact, this inflow of external funds has pressured the dollar downwards, testing the R$5.00 mark.

At the same time, fine-tuning between the government and BC is essential to stabilize the domestic market. It remains to be seen, then, whether this week’s data and events adjust the uncertainties in the scenario, which tends to remain under the domination of politics.

Likewise, a harmony between Fed It is Wall Street it is essential to equalize the performance of global assets on the same frequency.

After all, foreigners’ appetite for the risk premium in Brazil is closely linked to the global scenario. For now, the prospect that the US will avoid recession and engaging a soft landing is incorporated into asset prices.

But this vision still has more open questions than answers – the Fed and the payroll are evidence of this. Thus, it may be time to preserve defensive positions, waiting for a more concrete panorama, both here and abroad.

Maybe until the middle of this month, which is just beginning, after a long, almost endless January. That is, the beginning of 2023 is not easy at all.