Falling Selic? Stocks that may benefit from a possible reduction in interest rates

If the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) reduces the Selic rate, the basic interest rate, Arezzo (ARZZ3), Multiplan (MULT3), WEG (WEGE3), Assai (ASAI3), sky (CIEL3) It is totvs (TOTS3) should benefit, according to Guide Investimentos.

The stocks have the profile of being companies that suffered from the increase in interest rates in the last 12 months, even with good fundamentals – low debt, high margins and growing results.

The brokerage firm, in a report signed by Fernando Siqueira and his team, says that the credit slowdown could create space for the Copom to reduce interest rates. “The impact on the stock market would be positive,” she summarized.

However, the market, in general, does not see the monetary authority changing the level of the basic interest rate fees in decision this Wednesday (22). The Selic has been at 13.75% yearly since August of last year and should remain so for the next few months.

fixed income

Guide says it’s important to be “conservative” in fixed income and avoid big risks. “With credit spreads widening, there are high rates for many fixed-income products right now,” he said. “The rates are generally high and it is not necessary to take big risks to obtain good returns”.

The brokerage states that the next three to six months may continue to bring negative surprises in terms of requests for judicial recovery, payment delays, etc. “The risk-return ratio is better in sovereign bonds (government bonds) and ‘investment grade’ bonds.”

In addition, he ponders, it would be important to have diversification in the private credit portfolio. “As much as the rates are high in some operations, it is better to diversify the portfolio in several operations to dilute the credit risk”.