The deterioration of the macroeconomic scenario threw a bucket of cold water on the commodities. O iron orewhich engaged in a strong recovery movement in recent months, is already showing signs of slowing down with the uncertainties surrounding Chinese demand, while the Petroleum has lost some steam in recent weeks as markets come back to weighing the possibility of a global recession.
The commodity slowdown has directly impacted equities. Not even OK (VOUCH3) It is Petrobras (PETR4), two big names on the Bolsa and Ibovespa, came out unscathed.
After talking with Brazilian investors, the XP Investimentos came to the conclusion that positioning in commodity companies was less obvious than before, with Vale and Petrobras appearing more in the territory short/underweight (sale).
After the news of bank collapse SVB Financial Group It is Signature Bank in the United States, in addition to the crisis of the Credit Suisse which culminated in its sale to the UBS Group, investors lost a little interest in commodities, waiting for a less uncertain scenario, says the brokerage.
“Investors were not very enthusiastic about buying commodities until there was more visibility to see if the SVB/Credit Suisse was a one-off case or the beginning of something bigger”, he highlights, in a report published this Sunday (26).
“On the other hand, the domestic macro and political scenario in Brazil has further deteriorated, and commodity producers and their exposure to dollar-linked revenues provide a hedge (protection) important”, adds XP.
According to the institution, with oil prices currently at the level of US$ 70-80/barrel, the positive long-term perspectives have lost strength. Investors are more likely to believe in higher prices from the second half of 2023 onwards.
To top it off, the recent announcement of a crude oil export tax in Brazil could be increased by more taxes if oil prices rise.
“As a result, we saw more investors positioning themselves in companies abroad or directly in the commodity”, says XP.
Both Petrobras shares and Vale shares have accumulated a drop of approximately 7% since the SVB crash.
PETR4 Risks
Most investors remain short or underweight for Petrobras, says the brokerage.
Looking at the coming years, under the Lula government, the consensus believes that the company’s profitability and cash generation will decline. It is still not known for sure, however, the speed of deterioration.
Investors heard by XP raised some points of discussion, such as the new pricing of fuelsthe possible changes in corporate governance, the new policy of dividends and other cash drain risks.
“Investors are wondering if Petrobras will try to buy RLAM, Braskem (BRKM5) or even a distributor (the assets of Vibra [VBBR3] or from Raízen [RAIZ4])”, raises the realtor.
On the issue of dividends, investors believe that the level of distribution will become “another source of rivalry” between Fernando Haddad, Minister of Finance, and some PT members opposed to maintaining the massive payments of recent years.
VALE3 risks
With an eye on the process of reopening China and with questions about the sustainability of the iron ore rally, investors are mostly negative with stocks of mining It is steel industry.
XP says investors are seeing increased risks of a potential increase in royalties or even higher income tax rates that could affect the company’s results.
On the other hand, investors seem to attribute a good generation of value in the medium/long term with Cosan’s investment (CSAN3) in the mining company.
Investors seem to have the Gerdau (GGBR4) as the preference of the universe of mining and steel companies, being the most “bought” name, although not an option with high conviction, completes the XP.
Source: Moneytimes
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