Despite oil risk, BTG sees Petrobras as a long -term winning company in the sector (image: istock.com/fabiolm)
For the BTG Pactualthe main short -term risk of Petrobras (Petr4) There are no impacts on a search for government for new revenues, but the prices of oilwhich are suffering the impact of the developments of the tariff applied by the President of United States, Donald Trump.
The bank points out that in recent weeks it has circulated in the media of the government’s intention to collect between $ 3 billion and $ 5 billion through new surplus oil auctions in fields already in production.
“Brazil’s fiscal budget is based on a $ 80 oil price premise per barrel and, with the accumulated average of the year at $ 73 per barrel, the collection of taxes in the sector can fall short of expected. Thus, the proposed auction could serve as a tool to reduce tax pressure,” says the team of analysts led by Pedro Soares.
The view of a limited impact is first supported by the absence of an official bidding document, which makes it difficult to assess whether the estimated collection of $ 3 billion to 5 billion is realistic. At first glance, however, the value seems optimistic.
Based on data from ANP (National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels), production in the last 12 months of the surplus areas of Tupi, Mero and Atapu – the three fields allegedly under evaluation – represented only 0.5%, 3.6% and 1.2% of the total production of each field, respectively.
“In short, until we have more quantitative details – or even confirmation – about the government’s proposal, we do not believe that this risk of headline threatens Petrobras’ cash flow generation capacity or, ultimately, its dividends, which remain the main focus of investors,” analysts say.
On the other hand, geopolitical uncertainty and the risks of a deceleration economic global continue to press oil and, consequently, the perspective of dividends from Petrobras in the short term.
Time to buy Petrobras?
Petrobras remains the main choice of BTG Pactual in the oil and gas sector, supported by a lean balance and a robust generation of cash flow, even in a lower price scenario of the oil.
The Bank’s target price to Petr4 it is R $ 58with recommendation for buy.
Despite recognizing the fall in prices of commodity as a risk factor, in view of the efficiency of Petrobras and considering that the current levels of the Brent They are not far from the marginal costs of global production, analysts remain with the view that the oil company is a long -term winner in the sector.
Source: Moneytimes
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