Overall, analysts are more pessimistic with BB Segurity. Of five houses consulted, three have neutrality and two purchase (image: disclosure)
Used to delivering good results, investors of BB Segurity (BBSE3) They were surprised on Tuesday when they came across nearly 7% at a minimum of the day.
Last Monday, the insurer of the Banco do Brasil (BBSA3) delivered profit just below expected, at $ 2 billion. Bloomberg consensus expected profit of R $ 2.1 billion. But that was not even the main reason for today’s fall.
According to analysts, the problem would be in the awards issued, which were below the projected by BB Segurity itself in its guidance.
The awards issued by BRASILSEG They retreated 5.9%, far from the expectation of growth of 2% to 7% in 2025.
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According to the company, Brasilseg was impacted by “performance below that provided for in credit products, especially agricultural and providing insurance”.
Weak results
In a report, the Goldman Sachs He says he noticed weaker trends, especially in insurance and social security business.
The issued awards decreased 7% over the previous quarter (6% compared to the previous year), while the BRASILPREV recorded another quarter of liquid outputs.
“We believe that the weak beginning of the year probably implies risks to comply with the orientation of 2-7% upward insurance awards by the end of the year,” he says.
On the other hand, Goldman is still confident that the company will reach its guidance for operating results, which provides up of 4% to 8% in the year.
Another point, according to analysts, is that the action may be suffering from a profit, as the paper fires 20% in the year.
Fall in the quarter worries
THE Itaú BBA It also classified the numbers as ‘weak’ on the social security side. Although reserves and contributions were in line, administration revenues continued to suffer from falling rates.
“The financial result was also slightly below expectations. Brazilprev’s result was $ 356 million, against our estimate of $ 437 million.”
Overall, they say, total net income thanks to an increase of more than 30% in financial results and a 5% increase in operating results.
However, the 8% sequential fall over the previous quarter and the business trend “lead us to a negative reading of the quarter.”
“Lower -emitted awards today and pressure on management rates tend to have negative effects on market estimates for the 2025/26 fiscal year”.
For the UBS-BBBrasilcap was 18% below expected, while Brasilseg and the broker were above.
What to do with BB Segurity?
Overall, analysts are more pessimistic with BB Segurity. Of five houses consulted, three have neutrality and two purchase.
For the BTGfor example, the action rose too much. According to analysts, with revenues ending 2024 and starting 2025 at a slower pace than expected, the space for positive profit reviews now seems much more limited.
In addition, he says, given BB BB’s tighter balance sheet, BB Seguridade controller, “we also see much less room for BBSE action repurchase”.
“Although the 10% dividend yield remains a protection and should protect actions from major sales, the potential for appreciation now seems more limited, and we prefer the BOX SECURITY (Csxe3) as our main insurance option for the rest of 2025 ″.
Already the Genial It says that despite the weakest result in the quarter – marked by retraction in insurance awards and negative networking in pension – the vision is more positive for 2025.
The house projects net profit of R $ 9.0 billion (up 11% in the year), mainly supported by growth of the financial result.
This is because the maintenance of Selic In high level it can pump the results, which benefits the mostly post-fixed wallets of the insurance, capitalization and brokerage verticals.
“We also expect a gradual resumption of the growth of the awards issued, accelerating from 2.2% in 2024 to 4.5% in 2025, pulled by the prestressing insurance, which tends to benefit from the recovery of payroll loans, and agricultural insurance, driven by the need for credit to the credit for the planting as for greater awareness of climate risks ”.
For analysts, BB Segurity is a defensive asset, negotiated at 9x the price on profit for 2025 and 8.1x for 2026, with estimated dividend yield of 9.6% in 2025.
“The eventual renegotiation of distribution contracts with Banco do Brasil can act as a relevant catalyst, since many investors do not yet perpetuate the company after 2033”.
Already RB Investimentos states that with the end of Selic’s discharge cycle, it is likely that the company loses space in some analysis.
An important point, according to the House, is the performance of agribusiness, which, although it represents about 10% of Brasilseg’s awards, has great potential to boost the results, especially in years with low sinister, as expected for 2025.
“The first quarter has already been positive in this segment, which can contribute to a recovery in the next periods. Still, agro revenues have fallen 40% in the quarter, leading to weaker than expected and below the projections released by the company itself.”
Source: Moneytimes
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