VALE (VALE3): What to expect after review of estimation by the company?

VALE (VALE3): What to expect after review of estimation by the company?

(Image: Reuters/Pillar Olivares)

The downward revision in the estimate of production of Iron ore clusters – which include pellets and briquettes – from the OK (VALE3) In 2025, the perspectives for the company, according to analysts, should not change the prospects.

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The change tends to have a punctual and restricted impact, as the production of Pelotas represents a lower fraction of the company’s portfolio, said Empiricus Research analyst Ruy Hungary.

“It gets in the way of the outcome perspective, but the effect is restricted,” he said. “Iron ore, which is the most relevant, Follows with intact projections”He adds.

Active Investments also cited the lowest cash generation in the Pelotas segment and reinforced the view of a more pressured structural award environment.

“However, since the segment is responsible for a limited portion of the consolidated EBITDA and the stop could already make production naturally approach the lower limit of the old Guidance, we evaluated that the effective reduction in annual production will be moderate,” he said.

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Around 15h this Wednesday (2), Vale shares rose 3.6%at R $ 55.28, driven by high in future iron ore priceswhich climbed in all the main rates. The supply fell, with a reduction in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while the production of gunshot increased, strengthening the feeling of investors.

The reference iron ore for August on the Singapore Stock Exchange advanced 1.82%to $ 94.9 the ton.

According to brokerage Everbright Futures, the shipments of the largest producers decreased, and global exports retreated slightly. Already the production of iron iron follows in high monthly.

In China, the manufacturing activity grew again in June, with the PMI indicators recording the largest production since November 2024.

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VALE REVIEW

Vale updated on Wednesday (2) its estimates of production of clusters to 2025, citing the current conditions of the Pelotas market. The projection has passed from 38 to 42 million tons to 31 to 35 million tons next year. The other operational estimates were maintained.

Vale also reported that it will anticipate maintenance at the São Luís Pelotization Plant (MA) during the third trimester of 2025. Pellet Feed originally intended for Pelotization will be directed to sales of iron thin, according to the company.

What to expect from 2T25?

Last month, Bradesco BBI estimated that Vale should report a US $ 3.6 billion EBITDA in the second quarter of 2025, which represents an advance of 12% compared to the previous quarter.

Despite the recovery in the quarterly comparison, the result should still be 10% below the same period registered last yearpressured by the lower prices of iron ore in the period.

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The bank’s expectation is that the production of iron ore reaches 82 million tons between April and June, with growth of 22% over the first quarter and 2% in the annual comparison.

Already the sales volumes should add 80 million tons, up 21% in the quarter, but stable over the same interval of 2024.

In basic metals, the BBI projection is an EBITDA of US $ 518 million, with a 6% drop from the first quarter, but a 27% increase in the annual base.

Source: Moneytimes

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