Itaú (Itub4): the size of the dividends that bank can pay, according to UBS BB

Despite being less optimistic with the Itaú (Itub4), the BB UBS still sees the bank as a good payer dividends. In analysts’ calculations, the bank may distribute R $ 55 billion in net dividends between 2025 and 2026.

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This, however, was not enough for the BB UBS to reinforce the purchase recommendation.

“[O pagamento] It is widely priced, but reinforces the attractiveness of the role for income investors, ”says the report.

According to the bank, after firing 40% and reaching its historical maxim, the action No more breath to climb.

With this, the recommendation was demoted to neutralwith target price of R $ 40.

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Currently, Itaú negotiates the 2 times the equity valueone of the biggest levels in your history.

Efficiency, watchword

Operational, Itaú will continue to stand out. According to UBS BB, the bank still has space to improve your efficiency And, consequently, increase profitability.

“Although it has reduced its staff by 5% since 2022, there is a significant gap between traditional banks,” analysts say.

In recent years, large banks have wiped the number of branches. In 2024, Itaú closed 219 points, adding 712 Closing since 2020 – and ended the first quarter with 3.8 thousand points of sale.

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“Notably, our sensitivity analysis suggests that each 5,000 reduction in Itaú’s staff by 2027 would mean a profitability 45 larger base points“, Highlights the UBS BB.

Profitability in the heights

Itaú should also maintain the Profitability (ROE) Above 20%, a brand consistently achieved in the last 10 years.

Among the factors cited by the report are:

• Lower cost/revenue between large bankswith 41.8% (against 53.2% of Bradesco and 47.1% of Santander);
• Reduction in the number of agencies and employeeswhich helps contain the costs.

“We also see room to improve its efficiency, given the still significant gap in the number of employees compared to fintechs,” concludes UBS BB.